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Trump, China, Tariffs, Déjà vu All Over Again, Again [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2025-05-13
On May 11, 2025, Trump announced a 90-day tariff reduction between the United States and China. U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods were slashed from a staggering 145% to 30%, while China slashed its tariffs on U.S. imports from 125% to 10%. To the MAGA faithful, this maneuver is already being framed as a masterstroke — “the Art of the Deal” in action—despite the significant economic damage that preceded it.
In his first term, Trump waged a broad trade war not only with China but with much of the world. While President Biden left many of Trump’s tariffs intact, he shifted some policies from tariffs to quotas, especially in products like steel and aluminum. Trump’s original China strategy involved four rounds of tariffs on different goods, mostly at 25%, with one round initially at 15% and later lowered to 7.5%. Eventually, nearly all Chinese imports were subject to tariffs, and Biden largely preserved that framework.
Trump’s second term marks a continuation—and escalation—of his earlier trade policies. Although the recent cut to 30% is a retreat from the extreme 145% level, it still represents a higher tariff burden than during Trump’s first term. As such, U.S. consumers will continue to feel the squeeze. The 30% rate may seem generous only when compared to Trump’s recent musings about imposing an 80% tariff on China.
Barron’s captured the moment with the headline: “Trump Blinked ‘Big Time’ on China Trade, Taking Worst Case Off Table.” Markets rallied on the news, but consumers will still face much higher prices—not only from Chinese goods, but also from a persistent 10% tariff on imports from the rest of the world. According to the Yale Budget Lab, this mix results in a 17.5% effective tariff rate, up dramatically from just 2.5% on January 20, 2025. (Source:
https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-may-12-2025)
The broader economic consequences are sobering: the U.S. is projected to lose 456,000 jobs, and while manufacturing output may rise by 1.5%, nearly every other sector is expected to contract. In short, we are all “tariffied.” There’s no champagne-worthy moment here—especially since the French champagne now costs more too.
Trump’s new tariff strategy is poised to increase inflation, undermine economic growth, wipe out hundreds of thousands of jobs, and deepen a looming recession. Worse, it raises the real risk of stagflation—a painful mix of stagnant growth and rising prices. For all the headlines and spin, America is heading toward an economic hangover, without having had a party.
Day 114: days left to January 20, 2029:1,348 days
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