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Democrats Must Think Big in 2026 (We Can Win the Senate) [1]

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Date: 2025-05-01

Democrats Must Think Big in 2026

Before I begin this essay, I am going to stipulate to several things, all of which I think will come to pass:

1. We will have generally have free and fair elections in 2026. (If we don’t, then we have entered into complete fascism and hopefully, we, the citizenry, will be taking to the streets en masse.)

2. The economy will be in shambles and we will be in a severe recession or depression. (Note: I don’t want this, but I think it unlikely that Trump will do the things he needs to do to avoid it. In fact, I anticipate him making things much worse because of his willfulness and stupidity.)

3. I believe that Trump’s declining poll numbers will get even worse, substantially worse.

Historically, the out party has benefited when the economic conditions are bad for the incumbent party. And when the economic conditions really suck, the incumbent party is usually faced with a “shellacking”, to use Obama’s word after the 2010 debacle.

Should what I predict actually happen, it seems that the general consensus is that the Democrats will regain the House but fall short in the Senate. I think the first part is true; the Democrats will almost assuredly regain the House. But I believe that Democrats could also regain the Senate by looking at races that may seem out of reach now. I want to talk about possibilities in the Senate.

I first want to note first what happened in the elections in early April. In Wisconsin, the progressive won the Supreme Court seat by 10 points and Democrats over performed in Florida House races by 15. And that was before all the madness with the tariffs and DOGE and the mistreatment of immigrants.

Though there are several Democratic held seats that might be tough, I believe all the seats they currently hold will stay in the Dem column, including people like Jon Ossoff in Georgia. I believe this because I think there will be massive Democratic turnout and that independents will sway heavily in our direction as well.

In 2020, the following Republican Senators won by 10 points or less.

- Dan Sullivan, Alaska (+6)

- Ashley Moody (Marco Rubio’s seat), Florida (+5)

- Joni Ernst, Iowa (+6)

- Roger Marshall, Kansas (+8)

- Susan Collins, Maine (+4)

- Steve Daines, Montana (+10)

-Thom Tillis, North Carolina (+1)

- Jon Husted (J.D Vance’s seat), Ohio (+5)

- Lindsay Graham, South Carolina (+8)

- John Cornyn, Texas (+6)

I think all these seats are in play, some more than others. I think Tillis in North Carolina and Susan Collins in Maine are likely to lose. Roy Cooper is a popular former governor and it’s not helping Tillis that Trump is screwing the state on promised FEMA monies. And I’m pretty sure that Susan Collins “concerns” are not enough anymore for Mainers who want someone who will forcefully confront Trump.

Alaska already has high prices because of its location. Dan Sullivan’s refusal to confront Trump on tariffs and Trump breaking his promises on inflation are something Sullivan can’t run away from. I am begging Mary Peltola to run against him (and not for Governor).

I recently saw Ashley Moody (Rubio’s replacement) on TV and found her unimpressive. I know that Florida has swung dramatically red the last few cycles. But much of that has to do with poor Democratic voter turnout. If that can be turned around, plus the fact that Trump/Musk are fucking with people’s social security, a strong candidate could pull off a victory for the democrats.

Iowa is another state that has swung red in recent years. However, Trump’s policies are inflationary and his tariffs are screwing over farmers. Joni Ernst seems like a strong candidate, but not an unbeatable one. A truly populist candidate could beat Ernst who has kowtowed to Trump at virtually every turn.

A Democrat hasn’t been elected Senator from Kansas since the 1930’s, but watch a clip of Roger Marshall being interviewed. He has an ugly persona beyond his MAGA conservatism. He was so obnoxious and stupid, Anthony Fauci was overheard calling him a “moron” at a Senate hearing. The current governor of Kansas is a Democrat so it is possible for us to win there. In a wave election, I believe Marshall can be beat.



Montana is another state that has trended red and absent a strong Democratic opponent, Steve Daines is likely to be reelected. But Howard Dean was right, that we should be contesting everywhere because if the stars align correctly, almost anyone can be beat. Having said that, Daines is probably a safe R as is South Carolina’s Lindsay Graham.

Jon Husted holds J.D. Vance’s old Ohio Senate seat. Vance only won by 5 points during Biden’s midterm. Sherrod Brown only lost by 3.5 points only because Trump was at the top of the ticket and because the Republicans spent a boatload of money lying about him. If Brown runs, or even someone like Tim Ryan, this seat is definitely in play, particularly since both those Democrats are so associated with the working class.

And there is Texas, the Democrats white whale. Beyond this upcoming Senate race, the Democrats (and some progressive billionaires) should be spending huge sums of money to turn the state blue. The problem in Texas is that so many potential progressive voters just don’t vote, millions of them. But if Texas does become blue, just as California did, it will be almost impossible for a Republican to be elected President again. And Senator John Cornyn only won by six points in 2020 and he is going to face a primary challenger from the Attorney General, Ken Paxton. Colin Allred is thinking of running again, which is good.

And there a few other seats to keep an eye on, like in Nebraska. The independent, Dan Osborn, only lost to Deb Fischer in 2024 by six points. I know Pete Ricketts won by more than 20 points last time, but if the economy is bad enough, Osborn’s working class message will resonate.

And finally, this is my list of the seats that would be most likely to flip (from most likely to least likely) if the scenario I described happens and the Democrats field strong candidates.

1. Thom Tillis

2. Susan Collins

3. Jon Husted

4. Joni Ernst

5. Roger Marshall

6. John Cornyn

7. Ashley Moody

8. Dan Sullivan

9. Lindsay Graham

10. Steve Daines

Curious to read your comments, particularly if you think I’m right or that I’m being too Pollyannish…or if there are any other races we should be looking at.

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