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U.S. Real GDP Fell By 0.3 Percent in the First Quarter. Thanks Trump [1]

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Date: 2025-04-30

As expected, U.S. economic growth stalled in the first quarter of 2025, almost entirely due to uncertainty about Trump’s economic policies and the impact of tariffs. Real GDP growth was -0,3% in the quarter. Consumer Prices increased by 3.6% in the first quarter, up from 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Right wing and mainstream news may try to spin this as bad weather or something. But it’s not. It’s the Trump Effect, in plain sight.

Here’s the link to the press release: www.bea.gov/...

Here’s a link to the more detailed data (PDF): www.bea.gov/…

UPDATE: Private payroll growth weakens to a level consistent with rising unemployment. Unless the labor force shrinks, or government payrolls grew a lot (which I doubt), these numbers would signal a likely uptick in the unemployment rate in April or May.

CNBC: Private payroll growth slowed to 62,000 in April, well below expectations

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