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GDP Growth Now Expected to be -1.5 Percent in Q1. Consumer Confidence Continues to Fall [1]

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Date: 2025-04-29

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPnow-cast just updated, with a prediction that the initial real GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2025, which will be released tomorrow at 8:30am, will be -1.5%, with the adjustment for gold imports. (The Fed has offered an alternative nowcast that takes out some January gold imports from the GDP calculation, since it assumes some of those imports were not for production of goods or services, which is what real GDP measures.)

This is the Trump effect, pure and simple. Tariffs and economic uncertainties are the cause. And all Republican voters who supported Trump and MAGA, whether by ignorance or malice, are complicit.

I’ll try to take a look at the advance economic numbers tomorrow morning when they are released.

SIDE UPDATE: Today’s consumer confidence results are dismal. Here’s a link:

Consumer outlook hits lowest since 2011 as tariff fears mount, Conference Board survey shows

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