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"Trade Wars are Easy to Win" - Donald J. Trump, Master Negotiator and Economic Genius [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2025-04-24

Some economists are upbeat about the outlook for retailers in the USA, despite Trump’s tariffs that completely block trade. According to Forbes, Amazon is said to be in a competitive position because of its “free shipping” policy, which 82% of American families enjoy with Amazon Prime. So, even if prices are higher they will still do well.

Yeah, except that 70% of their products are sourced from China and tariffs of 150% are stalling shipments at the dock. Importers are declining to pay. They will be either shipped back to the point of origin or impounded and sold at auction after months in storage, or simply destroyed. In any case the importer has already paid for the shipment and is out the total cost.

One way or the other, Amazon may out compete other retailers, but their sales volume could easily shrink by 75%. That’s hardly a win in anybody’s book, even if its better than their competition.

New items introduced on Amazon are often offered on Amazon Vine, giving free merchandise to Amazon subscribers in exchange for reviews. The number of items offered on Vine has decreased from about 110,000 to about 55,000 in the last three days. Wonder what’s happening to all those products? Well they are sitting at the dock while importers are scratching their heads about what to do. One thing for certain, they are not ponying up a 150% tariff on them.

Not to worry though, as Economic Genius Trump has put oil on the water to calm economic fears of retail CEOs and is in tough negotiations with China, expecting a “deal” very soon. The only issue with that is that the Chinese government has not heard anything about it, denying any talks are taking place.

Further, they have no idea what Trump wants. In the mean time, the US economy is safely protected by the Trump Bullshit Dome. Lies might work on the market today, but empty retail shelves will be hard to stock with Trump’s litany of lies tomorrow.

If he wants to balance trade with China as some say, that is like wanting water to flow up hill. Just ask any plumber and they can tell you, that’s not gonna happen. You don’t need to consult an economist.

China is a developing economy with cheap labor producing cheap goods. We are an advanced economy producing expensive services. You can’t expect their low paid factory workers to by more consulting services from US financial firms and they are not going to order our take out for dinner.

As far as realistic asks to present to China, its hard to imagine what those might be. So, despite Trump claiming to be hard at negotiations with China, the reality is that China is refusing to engage in talks until after his tariffs are walked back. Trump famously said in February “Trade wars are easy to win!”

The problem with that is that no one knows what he is fighting for, least of all himself. Its hard to imagine what his vision of victory looks like. One gets the idea that his only objective is to be able to proclaim he “made a deal”, regardless of what the nature of that agreement might be. To him the “deal” is an end in itself. Just look at the botched job he is doing in Ukraine. He’s all about getting a “deal” regardless how unpalatable it is for our allies in Europe or Ukraine itself.

On the present course, the result of all the turmoil he has created will likely be a broken world trade system and possibly a genuine world wide depression if he does not quickly relent. As the wheels he has set in motion gain a momentum of their own, it may well be too late to reverse course.

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