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A Realistic Ukraine Peace Plan [1]
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Date: 2025-04-23
Much has been written about Trump's "peace plan" and promise to negotiate a quick end to the war in Ukraine. Of course this was all bluster and lies. But despite the utter ineptitude of the Trump administration, they were right to emphasize the need for peace.
While the Biden administration supported Ukraine, they never seemed to be able to articulate a viable peace plan. Blinken in particular seemed more worried about destabilizing Russia than saving Ukraine. Basically they were playing to not lose rather than to win.
With the US leadership somewhere between a Russian proxy and a total clown show when it comes to Ukraine, it is time for European powers to lead the way in negotiating peace in Ukraine. Together Germany, France, and the UK could present a united front that would guarantee a rapid end to the war without any participation of the United States. Here's what I think it should look like:
1) Recognize that Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk are disputed territories whose control must be resolved through diplomacy not warfare.
2) Recognize that the areas of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia occupied by Russia are illegal occupations and Russia must remove troops from those provinces before negotiations on disputed territories may begin.
3) Declare all undisputed areas of Ukraine under the joint protection of an alliance between Ukraine, France, Germany, and the UK.
4) Declare that France, Germany, and the UK will assist Ukraine in defending the undisputed territories from Russian aggression including by stationing their own troops and defensive equipment in areas of Ukraine west of the Dnipro that do not border Russia.
5) Declare that while non-Ukranian militaries will never strike Russia or the disputed territories, they support the right of Ukraine to do so as long as Russia continues to attack Ukraine.
6) Declare that any Russian attacks on western Ukraine will not trigger article 5 of NATO.
7) Declare that they will withdraw all troops from Ukraine once a peace deal has been signed unless the terms of the deal request them to remain for a specified period of time.
The goal is to make it clear to Putin that he can't outlast Ukraine, that his best chance to retain any part of Ukraine (e.g. Crimea) is immediate negotiations, and that nobody is threatening to take Russian territory. If Putin refuses to negotiate even then (likely) it may be enough to encourage some oligarchs to arrange for him to fall out a window so they can cut a deal before Russia completely implodes.
While I believe that Ukraine should regain all of its lost territory, see all of their people returned, and have Russia pay reparations, those things can be worked out in the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. The role of foreign powers should be to make it clear to Russia that it must negotiate in good faith with Ukraine or face utter ruin of their economy due to their unsustainable war.
A pipe dream? Perhaps. I don't have any of the leaders of these countries on speed dial after all. But I offer this thought experiment as a bit of hope that out of the ashes of the US abdication of western leadership a new phoenix of European leadership will arise.
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