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Handicapping the 'Race' to Succeed Pope Francis [1]
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Date: 2025-04-22
Apparently there really isn’t anything certain gamblers won’t take a bet on, particularly of the crypto-bro variety. Case in point is Polymarket as reported in Fortune:
The death of Pope Francis is a time of mourning for millions of catholics around the world, but it also marks the beginning of an intricate succession plan. All eyes are on who will be chosen to become the next pontificate, and Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market, has already accumulated almost $4 million worth of bets. The next pope is officially chosen in a conclave, a Latin word which means “a room that can be locked up.” Members of the College of Cardinals will cast their votes in the Sistine Chapel. Of the 252 members, 138 are currently eligible to vote for the pope, as they meet the age requirement of being younger than 80 years old. But that hasn’t stopped laymen from around the world putting money on who they think will take over as the next head of the Catholic Church. As the world prepares for the pope’s funeral, these are the contenders who the market thinks have a shot as the top spot.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin — 31%: 70-year-old Italian who has occupied the #2 position in the Vatican (Secretary of State) since 2013. A more moderate supporter of much of Pope Francis’s agenda.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle — 22%: 67-year-old Filipino, dubbed the ‘Asian Francis’ due to his close alignment with the former Pope’s values and policies.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi — 10%: 69-year-old Italian, led a peace mission to Ukraine in 2023 and known for his outreach to the LGBTQ+ community.
Cardinal Peter Turkson — 10%: 76-year-old Ghanaian, who would be the first African Pope in many centuries, and an outspoken supporter of social justice issues.
Cardinal Peter Erdo — 10%: 72-year-old Hungarian Archbishop of Budapest, a conservative figure who Orban would no doubt love to see elevated to the Papacy.
These are the apparent ‘frontrunners’ in the next Papal election, though as with any Polymarket handicapping, the odds are subject to change as more bets are placed.
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