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First, Kill All the Pollsters [1]

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Date: 2025-04-22

Okay, before anyone writes me to let me know: yes, I am well aware that this is a bastardization of the real quote (“The first thing we do, let’s kill all the lawyers”) from Henry VI Part II, the Henry-ing. And furthermore, yes, I am aware it is the arguably a precursor to tyranny in the play (The arguably matters. You could also read it as an attack on lawyers putting money above justice, given the context). But two things: language evolves — connotation is often more powerful than definition. Second: do you want pithy titles or not?

Gavin Newsom recently whined that the case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a man who was illegally sold to an El Salvadorian work prison (yes sold, not deported. Deported people are free when they get off the plane. And the Vice-President of El Salvador admitted that the Trump Administration is paying the country to take these people) is a distraction. Since this is an “80-20 issue” for Republicans in his words, the Democrats should be fine with letting the Administration illegally sell people to foreign jails. As much fun as it is to pick on Gavin Newsom, and as much as he deserves it, he is merely a symptom, not the disease.

An entire faction of Democrats, usually but not always moderates and right-wingers, has convinced themselves that the only way to combat Trumpism is to only talk about issues that Trump is already underwater on. This faction seems to contain a large number of consultants and so-called data people, and it is terrified of ever stepping crosswise to a poll. David Schor has been one for ages, and Matt Yglesias has practically turned it onto a fetish.

I blame the Green Lantern.

Back in the Obama years, oh so long ago, there arose a defense of Obama’s unwillingness to forcefully argue for his own policies. People defending Obama derisively called believers in the benefit of making a case for his own polices and trying to pressure Congress people believers in the Green Lantern Theory of politics. This theory, that presidents and parties could not shape public opinion and thus could not pressure Congress people, was named after a comic book character who has a green lantern that can create anything he needs and thus defeat anything not yellow. Look, it’s a comic book, it’s not supposed to make a lot of sense. And neither did the theory.

No one thought that if Obama just gave a speech, then things would turn out okay. But they did think that as long as Obama relied on “nudges” in government policy, refused to speak constantly on behalf of his less popular ideas, and applied some pressure to Congress people, we might need up moving the needle on some issues. It does happen. A decade of constant pressure by Republicans against LBGTQ+ people has driven down the favorability of equal rights. You can make issues more or less popular by trying to convince people. The Green Lantern Theory sold a bogus worldview to a lot of democratic partisans in defense of a President making a mistake.

Now, of course, the Green Lantern Theory is likely not the cause of this disease. But is at least a serious symptom. Democratic politicians and their consultants have forgotten what polls are for. They treat polls as things that tell you what to do. Polls are actually things that help you decide HOW to do what you should do. In the first case, you cower before the all-powerful, unmoving public opinion and hope you can sneak past it into office. In the second, you realize that selling people to foreign prisons without so much as a single day in court is pretty fucking bad and you use polls to tell you whether or not you are being successful in getting your point across and perhaps how to phrase it in a manner that reaches people in a way that they are prepared to hear.

Being a representative is hard. You owe it to listen to the opinions of the people you represent, but you also owe those people your intelligence and industry. And when the two conflict, when you think you are right, you owe it to them to try and convince them that you are. People like Shor and Yglesias either do not think kidnapping people off the street without a chance to defend themselves in court is important, or they are too afraid of the fight to act on the simple belief that a day in court is the first, best defense against arbitrary tyranny. The believers in cowering before polls will tell you that they just want to win, that it’s too risky to take on unpopular ideas and allow an authoritarian Republican Party to continue in power.

That last is indisputably true. But politics is not a game of subtle differences and nuanced conversations. What do you win if you cannot implement better policies because you explicitly avoided talking about them or ran on not opposing them? People are scared for their fundamental freedoms, and scared for the life they are going to live, economically, socially, and legally. In what world does not fighting for right make people think you and your party are tough enough to stand for them?

Gavin Newsom will never be President because he is a cowardly poll watcher, among other manifest flaws. That is a problem for him. It only becomes a problem for the country is people like Yglesias and Shor get their way and the Democrats run him or a fellow traveler too afraid of polls to actually fight for anything.

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