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A Theory of Victory Part IV: The Legislature Performs its Role. [1]
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Date: 2025-04-22
The Legislature performs their role.
Well first we need to ask why are they not right now? Let’s start with a painful truth, some of it is because they are happy with what is happening.
Take the concerns of Social Security for example, how this may be impacted is terrifying—to us—but let’s not pretend that most Republicans will be anything but gleeful at any reduction or privatization aspect of Social Security. They have wanted this for a long time and have been laying the “Ponzi scheme” messaging groundwork long before Musk.
That being said “see no evil” Republicans are not on board with everything for sure and there are egos there too. They want their power and some even want to run for President themselves some day. To the extent they aren’t exercising their power is because they fear Musk and/or Trump’s base.
So clearly these factors need to be addressed.
Trump’s popularity needs to be eroded. Musk needs to be financially and politically humbled. The Legislature needs to fear their constituents more than they fear Musk and Trump.
The good news is all three of these ARE happening, but they need to be more severe.
How do we ensure that, what does success look like here?
Historically Presidents have struggled after their popularity goes under 40% and face revolts from their own party. See Nixon after Watergate, LBJ in the late stages of the Vietnam War, Bush Senior with the early 90s recession among others.
Others say in the case of Trump it needs to drop to 32%
What should we aim for? Let’s aim for under 40% and see where we are, it may be enough, if not we keep pushing, it will probably get easier the lower he goes, people don’t want to be on the losing side and like to be on the winning side so a virtuous cycle is possible. Further Trump has been below 40% before so we know it is possible. There could be more than one way this happens but generally the two strongest detractors to popularity are foreign policy failure and economic distress. We are on track for both right now. This again ties back to the cabinet, there are of course exceptions but generally we should let the cabinet gain power at the expense of Musk and Trump because they will continue to funnel the econ and foreign policies down the drain and take Trump with them. They also don’t have their own power bases, whereas Trump and Musk do—this is a key strategic vulnerability we need to keep in mind.
Economic Policy: Continued boycotts will continue to increase economic uncertainty and so will help as demand wains. These will not be the biggest impact but will continue to help it along.
Democrats should let the economy collapse, letting the government go unfunded may have been the best way to nudge this forward, so that is a missed opportunity in my opinion. However as is, that is still the trajectory. Is there a limit when the Dems should step in? Yes, probably, but the bar is high for this.
Democrats should NOT help in any bills to rescue the economy after the collapse comes until the crisis is over in a clear and substantive sense and real power is clawed back. Foreign Policy: As I said in a previous article I believe Europe has been preparing for going alone for some time in Ukraine. I am still concerned about Ukraine so I don’t want to seem like otherwise, and I am sickened in how we are now perceived (rightfully so) and what Zelensky had to endure. However, that is what it is. And as is Ukraine is now a US policy failure already, (even if I am cautiously optimistic it won’t in the long run be a European failure ), this will become incredibly painfully clear when the US pulls out completely. The right will run their propaganda machine in full force, but Trump can’t escape his day one promises. The most devoted in his cult won’t be swayed, but that is true no matter what, those on the edges are likely to see it.
In terrible way, foreign policy is now intertwined with economic policy due to the tariffs as well as immigration due to El Salvador. However, this also has benefits as this creates associations and positive feedback between the two in each case. So it should help accelerate the trajectory.
due to the tariffs as well as immigration due to El Salvador. However, this also has benefits as this creates associations and positive feedback between the two in each case. So it should help accelerate the trajectory. From a tactical point of view, these should ALWAYS be communicated together , Immigration and due process failures should ALWAYS be connected to El Salvador. Tariffs should ALWAYS be connected to weakening US power abroad and empowerment of our adversaries.
point of view, these should ,
As Trump and Musk’s popularity wains and the legislature fears voters more than them, they will likely remember they have power. But we aren’t there yet and unfortunately we have a decent ways to go I think.
Links to previous articles in the series below:
A Theory of Victory Part II
A Theory of Victory Part III
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