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Presidential QBR Update: 1Q-2025 [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2025-04-21

In early January I proposed developing a Presidential version of the NFL’s Quarter Back Rating (I discuss at length in the previous diary, A Presidential QBR?). While much of the voting public doesn’t pay attention to politics, in recent years more than 90% of the top 100 most-viewed live television broadcasts have be National Football League games. While not at the same level as national politics, strong partisan emotions have been known to color perceptions of team leaders by the fans, and so the QBR was developed to anchor those conversations.

In a world of distractions, one of many approaches we can take is to anchor a Presidential QBR on issues that polling indicates have been important to voters over the past 50 years, and we can compare Presidents from Carter through Trump in his second term using these measures.

My initial approach had five categories of measures that polling showed were important to a wide range of voters and measurable: (1) Business Economy, (2) Household Economy, (3) Deficit and National Debt, (4) Health Care, and (5) Crime & Illegal Immigration. I’ve learned that some of the metrics are not updated frequently and so for Household Economy, I have substituted the Consumer Confidence Index in place of the government calculation of the median salary in inflation-adjusted dollars. I will update the ratings for Health Care, and Crime & Illegal Immigration when reliable data becomes available.

Each measure has been adjusted to an average annual level based on the duration of each President’s Administration, since Reagan, Clinton, Bush II, and Obama had eight-year Administrations, and Carter, Bush I, Trump I, and Biden each served a four-year term. I am treating Trump II as a separate Administration, and I am adjusting all but the stock market measures on an annualized basis for an equitable comparison with the other Presidential Administrations. This may produce a higher level of volatility in the initial measures of Trump II, but that should balance out over time

Business Economy: Voters value a growing economy and a strong stock market. The Business Economy metric measures growth in GDP and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (which reflects economic conditions primarily affecting wealthier Americans).

Household Economy: Voters want jobs and stable prices, and they want the benefits of economic prosperity to flow to them. The Household Economy metric measures jobs via changes in the unemployment rate, changes in the inflation rate, change in cumulative inflation (reflects impacts of high inflation in the middle of an Administration as with Biden even if inflation is lower in the end), and the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) published by The Conference Board

Deficit: Voters worry about the annual deficit and the growing national debt. This metric measures the change in the annual deficit from what a President inherits to what is passed to the successor (which is relevant due to the lag-time and inertia in federal spending and tax collection).

Let me know if you find this useful or interesting

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