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NEXT UP: Pardon Promises [1]

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Date: 2025-04-18

Are you ready?

From the BBC:

“A US federal judge has given President Donald Trump's officials a one-week deadline to comply with his court order or risk being found in contempt of court - potentially setting up a historic clash between two equally powerful branches of government.”

Yes — we’re not even through the first 100 days of Trump 2.0 and already we’re at the “historic clash between two branches of government” headlines.

You probably know the whole story, but to review (handy timeline):

Back in March: 200+ people flown from the US to notorious prison in El Salvador (and other planes elsewhere)

ACLU preemptively files suit; US Federal Judge James Boasberg imposes temporary restraining order, orders them not to take off; they take off anyway; then to return “immediately”; they do not return

Various hearings are held regarding the “possible defiance” of the court’s order

Trump calls for judge to be impeached; more hearings — how did this happen?; administration’s response “woefully insufficient” judge says

Judge vows to get to the bottom of this

April: Judge finds probable cause to hold Trump administration in contempt; requires explanation by April 23 — whose “specific act or omission” caused the noncompliance

Possible penalties: prosecution of those involved, ultimately amounting to fines and/or prison sentences if charged and convicted

So: who’d like to lay odds on the likelihood of this or that Trump messenger, lackey, ICE stooge, plane ride person, or anyone else, paying a fine or doing time in response to this affair?

No.

But what will actually come next? For the time being, the administration has chosen the safer course: “we plan to seek immediate appellate relief,” they said. Fine.

But what next? If an appeals court upholds this ruling? If SCOTUS upholds it? What then?

In my view it is only a matter of time — whether weeks, days, or mere hours — before the entire world is forced to grapple with a social media post like this from the President of the United States:

“I will happily PARDON anyone convicted of doing anything involved with enacting my legal and critical deportation plans. NO ONE will pay a dime or go to jail for helping MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! The activist and out of control leftist liberal Democrat Judge who led this crusade and hoax against Trump should be impeached. PARDONS will be issued as needed, now and in the future, to ensure that all LEGAL, NECESSARY deportations to rid our great nation of gangs, traffickers, drug dealers, rapists, and murderers — all people the radical left now openly SUPPORTS — are purged from this country. The Pardon Power of the President is ABSOLUTE and THEY KNOW IT! No Heroes will go to prison in our great nation! MAGA!”

(to clarify: this post is imaginary… for now)

Think this won’t happen? Why? And then where will we be?

It’s time for the smart people in the room to begin to assess what the nation’s response should be, or can be, when the President begins openly notifying his legions that he is ready and willing to use his pardon power to exempt them from laws, freeing them from responsibility for carrying out his illegal schemes, and eliminating any chance that anyone is held accountable when laws are broken — even if those breaking them result in death, tragedy, or other horrific outcomes.

It’s all upside for Trump: he gets to personally play hero, he gets to emphasize just how important his initiatives are (would he bother pardoning those carrying them out if they weren’t?), and he gets to portray Democrats as standing in the way of carrying out the will of the people, as expressed by him, the person they elected.

And — bonus! — he has a get-out-of-jail-free card in that anyone who pushes back too hard on the concept of using pardons can always be fed the Biden line: what I’m doing isn’t anywhere near as bad as what Joe Biden did. You don’t like that I pardoned some nameless faceless ICE hero who was trying to rid some neighborhood of a violent criminal gang member? I don’t even know him. But Joe Biden pardoned his family and friends before leaving office. It’s horrible. I’m the one using pardons properly, not abusing them like Democrats have been doing.

Gang, I don’t see how it doesn’t end here, and I don’t see where the nation goes from there, once it does. Once pardons are weaponized and talked about openly, it takes even the most basic power to enact laws in this country and makes a mockery of it.

[And yes, I realize there are state laws, civil penalties, etc., that are not pardonable by a President, and those are worth rallying around, but I think given the circumstances, and the willingness of this president to exact revenge on anyone who crosses him, up to and including threats of violence, threats to family members, threats to livelihood, etc., we’re not going to see a long line of lawyers ready to go after those penalties in direct opposition to what the President wants.]

Help me out here team — what’s our way out of this? What institution? What politician? As soon as Trump is cornered enough, I predict he’ll start promising pardons, in broad daylight and out in the open. And from there I’m not sure we have a country anymore.

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