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Are 937,200 Democrats who sat out the last election coming back in 2026? [1]
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Date: 2025-04-17
Across the four Sunbelt battleground states — Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina — there were at least 937,200 Democratic voters who turned out in 2020, but didn’t show up for Vice President Kamala Harris four years later. That’s a meaningful drop, and one that was large enough on its own to swing the election: Trump only won those states by a combined 531,539 votes.
[...]
There was a note of hope: The same voters who sat out last November have been horrified by what they’ve watched Trump and Elon Musk do since January — and most of the focus group participants reported that they are feeling strongly motivated to vote in 2026. The groups also offer some insight into what kind of leader might be able to draw these voters back to the Democrat party. Hint: That person is more in the mold of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez than Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, who infuriated the Democratic base when he helped advance the GOP’s partisan spending bill.
“There’s such a disgust for the business-as-usual mentality, and I think it really sticks with people,” Ancona says. “When they see what’s happening, they feel what’s happening, and they just don’t understand why some of the Democrats they see seem so stuck in sort of civility politics — they’re just going along with it. These voters are like: This isn’t a game. My life sucks! Fix this stuff!”
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