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How Bad Could the 2026 Election Get? Here’s a Poll on 4 Possible Scenarios [1]

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Date: 2025-04-13

It is time to confront some serious but uncomfortable questions about the 2026 election. Not the traditional questions about who will “win” the vote, but in ‘realspeak’ terms, who will prevail and actually be running the Congress in 2027?

First, lets set the context. Trump’s (and Musk’s) initial efforts at sweeping federal program cuts, and the market chaos produced by Trump’s reckless tariff actions, are already proving very unpopular. This is evidenced in plunging poll numbers, as well as the strong rebuke in the recent Wisconsin supreme court election. Indeed the Trump/Republican policy positions have an almost ‘comic book villain’ type quality: major cuts in virtually every public program to pay for huge tax cuts for billionaires!

Moreover, this is all before most of the real-world impacts of federal program budget cuts and mass lay-offs are actually felt by the public, and the inflationary impacts of all the tariff disruption hit actual consumers.

By all indicators, Republicans should be headed for huge losses in the 2026 midterm election. Given that stark reality, it is pretty surprising that there have been essentially zero defections so far among the House GOP support for all of Trump’s drastic budget and policy initiatives.

Unfortunately, in the current sad state of democracy in the U.S., there are plausible scenarios where the Republicans still prevail in 2026. And that is the setup for this very serious poll. Which of the following four scenarios is likely to reflect reality in 2026?

Path A: A free and fair election . It is somewhat naïve to imagine an election these days that truly fits the classic ‘civics class’ description of how elections in the U.S. should be handled. But so be it. In this scenario, Democrats achieve landslide victories.

Path B: A “real” election, albeit with continued (or even expanded) recent Republican efforts at voter suppression and billionaire funding . In this scenario, given the widespread rejection of the extreme actions that Trump and the Republicans have taken, the Democrats would still have a very good shot at taking back the House.

Path C: A pseudo election with all the voter suppression and billionaire funding, plus sophisticated computer manipulation of voting results to ensure Republican victories . This scenario seems a little far fetched, but is probably technically conceivable…and given who administers DOJ, the FBI, etc. under Trump, could we count on it being properly prevented and/or investigated? In this scenario, Republicans prevail…and Democrats are left to complain about a “stolen election”. (One can be sure that if Democrats ‘storm the capital’, they will not receive the kid glove treatment and pardons that the January 6th insurrectionists did.)

Path D: There is no election. Trump declares a state of emergency/martial law in response to citizen protests, and suspends the election . This scenario seems like horror story fiction. But given Trump’s actions to date (e.g., dozens of executive orders that are shockingly unconstitutional), and given the complete free pass he has gotten from the Congress (and to a large extent from the Supreme Court), can anyone truly dismiss this possible scenario?

Imagine a situation where there are widespread and aggressive citizen protests in response to: likely drastic cuts in all types of government services, including particularly medical care and financial assistance to struggling families; a growing economic crisis with tariff-induced inflation; together with rapidly rising unemployment. One can easily imagine those harsh realities resulting in some acts of vandalism and/or violence. Or if that isn’t sufficient, how about a covert action to ‘create’ a very visible example of violence that “demands a crisis response from the federal government” (Reichstag Fire anyone?)

There has already been much speculation that Trump might declare martial law in regard to the supposed ‘border crisis’ with Mexico. Indeed, on Inauguration Day, President Donald Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency at the southern border. The order requires both the Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of Homeland Security to submit a report with an update on conditions at the border and recommendations on whether the invocation of the Insurrection Act might be necessary.

While many organizations have purportedly “fact checked” the claim about Trump’s intention to declare martial law on April 20th and rated it “false”, there is little reason to be sanguine about something similar happening before the 2026 election… if it appeared likely that Republicans would lose control of Congress. Imagine for a moment that in response to growing violent protest (real or created), Trump were to issue an executive order suspending/cancelling the election. Who would have the ability (not to mention the willingness) to override that and proceed with an election?

Moreover, it is not unthinkable to imagine that at least some ‘deep red’ states would have governors, legislators, and secretaries of state that would go along with the executive order and suspend elections in their states. That alone would essentially derail any effort to seat a new Congress. Can you imagine current Speaker Mike Johnson standing up to Trump and insisting on seating a new Congress…where he would have to hand over power?

It is horrific and painful to even think that we might be headed down that path. But it would be naïve and dangerous to ignore the possibility and not take every possible step now to avoid that ‘end of democracy’ result.

So here is the poll: which of those 4 paths do you think will actually play out in 2026? Feel free to add your thoughts on why you voted that way.

Path A: A free and fair election . Democrats achieve landslide victories.

Path B: A “real” election, albeit with continued (or even expanded) recent Republican efforts at voter suppression and billionaire funding . Democrats still have a very good shot at taking back the House.

Path C: A pseudo election with all the voter suppression and billionaire funding, plus sophisticated computer manipulation of voting results to ensure Republican victories . Republicans prevail…and Democrats are left to complain about a “stolen election.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/4/13/2316209/-How-Bad-Could-the-2026-Election-Get-Here-s-a-Poll-on-4-Possible-Scenarios?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web

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