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Ukraine Invasion Day 1,144: 18-mile-wide "demilitarized zone" along the current frontline? [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2025-04-12

US Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg expressed support on April 11 for the deployment of an allied "reassurance force" in rear areas of western Ukraine after a possible future ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia.[1]

The Times reported on April 11 that Kellogg expressed support for a "partition" of Ukraine between European, Ukrainian, and Russian forces; the deployment of a European "reassurance force" in western Ukraine; and establishing an 18-mile-wide "demilitarized zone" along the current frontline.[2] Kellogg clarified later on April 11 that he supports the presence of a "reassurance force" that does not include US troops to support Ukrainian sovereignty, but that none of his statements during the interview suggested "a partitioning of Ukraine."[3] Kellogg noted that the Times misrepresented some of his statements referencing possible areas of responsibility (AORs) of a future European "reassurance force." x Ukraine war briefing: Ukraine could be partitioned like Berlin after second world war, says US envoy



[image or embed] — The Guardian (@theguardian.com) April 11, 2025 at 10:45 PM Kellogg's clarification regarding the deployment of a "reassurance force" in Ukraine's rear areas is consistent with several statements from Ukrainian and European leaders about a possible future peacekeeping contingent deployed to Ukraine. Ukrainian Commander in Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on April 9 that a putative peacekeeping contingent would not deploy to the frontline.[4] European Commission Vice President Kaja Kallas stated on April 10 that a future peacekeeping contingent would be likely to deploy not to the frontline but rather deeper within Ukraine or even outside of Ukraine.[5] Bloomberg reported on April 10 that UK Defense Secretary John Healey and French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu stated that the Coalition of the Willing aims to develop more detailed plans within the next two weeks about how the coalition will help secure Ukrainian airspace, coastline, and land.[6] People familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that the coalition hopes that the United States will agree to "backstop" any future European deployments to Ukraine with air power, border surveillance, and intelligence. www.understandingwar.org/...

The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 88 Shahed and decoy drones against Ukraine from Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and Kursk City.[71] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 56 Shahed and other drones over Ukraine and that 24 decoy drones were "lost," likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference. Ukrainian officials reported that strikes damaged infrastructure in Kharkiv, Kyiv, Odesa, Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk oblasts.[72] www.understandingwar.org/... Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 56 Shahed and other drones over Ukraine and that 24 decoy drones were "lost," likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference.

Russian forces have resumed a more typical strike pattern in late March and early April 2025 after a temporary spike in the size of Russian long-range strike packages in mid-February and early March 2025. Russian forces conducted notably larger strike packages in mid-February and early March 2025 but have launched strike packages more comparable to trends last observed in January and early February 2025, albeit using fewer missiles, in recent weeks. Russian forces notably conducted no strikes against Ukraine on April 7 - the day after conducting their largest strike in over a month on April 6 — but have since resumed daily strikes.[12] Russian officials have thus far refused to engage with or have outright rejected the US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire that US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff presumably proposed to Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting on March 13.[13] The proposed long-range strikes ceasefire on energy infrastructure would not require Russia to cease all long-range drone and missile strikes, but the proposed general ceasefire along the current frontline and in the air and sea would likely require Russia to end all strikes on Ukraine. Russian forces are likely delaying negotiations on a general ceasefire in order to continue making gains along the frontline in Ukraine and continue devastating long-range strikes against Ukrainian defense industrial and civilian areas in order to intimidate civilians and undermine Ukraine's ability to defend itself against future Russian aggression. www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Russian forces have reportedly adjusted their long-range strike tactics in recent weeks, likely as part of an effort to inflict significant damage with strike packages of sizes similar to those they had been using earlier in the year and to intimidate Ukrainian civilians. Ukrainian sources and German outlet BILD reported in late March and early April 2025 that Russian forces are loitering long-range drones at high altitudes several kilometers from large Ukrainian cities and other targets before conducting synchronized strikes with multiple drones.[14] Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces are flying Shahed drones in the densest possible formations in order to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense systems and that Russian forces concentrate a group of 10 to 15 Shahed drones outside of a city before striking the city. Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat reported on April 6 that Russian forces are constantly modernizing their Shahed drones, ballistic missiles, and strike tactics, complicating Ukrainian forces' ability to shoot them down.[15] Russian forces previously launched Shahed long-range drones in a series of waves against various targets each night, and this reported effort to operate drones in denser formations suggests that Russian forces believe this new tactic will overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses more effectively. www.understandingwar.org/...

x Today marks one month since Russia refused to accept the full 30-day ceasefire proposed by the U.S. and Ukraine. During this time, Russia has attacked Ukraine with nearly 70 missiles of various types, over 2,200 Shahed drones, and over 6,000 guided bombs.



[image or embed] — Anton Gerashchenko (@antongerashchenko.bsky.social) April 11, 2025 at 5:23 AM

www.understandingwar.org/... x x YouTube Video www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... Assessed Russian advances: Geolocated footage published on April 12 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced north of Druzhba (northeast of Toretsk) during a platoon-sized mechanized assault.[47] Additional geolocated footage published on April 12 and between March 24 and 8 indicates that Russian forces advanced in the northeastern outskirts of Toretsk, to central Krymske (northwest of Toretsk), and within central Novospaske (west of Toretsk, formerly Petrivka).[48] www.understandingwar.org/... www.understandingwar.org/... x x YouTube Video

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