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A Theory of Victory Part III: The Regime obeys the courts. [1]

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Date: 2025-04-12

The ship has sailed on the purity of the norms on obeying court orders. And to be honest in a very high level sense I would argue we should be ok with this. The left and center has too long treated the Judicial Branch as its lead, as if it is some paternal relationship.



A separation of powers is also a by intent and definition an adversarial set up. Dems have in too many cases not sufficiently acknowledged this.



So let’s jump right into it.

The Administration complies with the courts. First, why should they? If you have no moral impulses, and this regime clearly doesn’t, why not do as you wish? There are better articles out there about how it is in Trump’s interest not to avoid compliance because of the overwhelming desire for this to continue from the population and because Trump for now wants some legitimacy given to him from the Supreme Court and is waiting for them to rule on his side. Both points are applicable to some degree but this is also a game theory type scenario where Trump for all his many many many flaws, is politically astute and comfortable with taking bold risks.

Unfortunately these arguments are not particularly convincing. He had many options of how to begin this administration and yet he has chosen to flaunt or engage in plausible deniability to ignore court orders in some instances, so I don’t think we should assume he won’t at some point decide the opportunity to neutralize the courts and unshackle himself completely. I think the evidence is, he is considering this as an option still and actively exploring it.

How do we mitigate this? There are several weak points, some of which are applicable in other areas. Trump can’t execute anything without a team. Those in his administration are paranoid, mostly clueless, self centered people. There are so many weaknesses among them, but most of them are not foolish enough seemingly to think they are safe with Trump. They saw an opportunity and took it, a very transactional approach. They aren’t “True Believers” for the most part(there are those, but most of the admin isn’t that). They can be separated, and critically, it is already happening. The push back against Musk and the “win” from the cabinet of the “demotion” of Elon Musk a few weeks ago is just the surface we can see right now, this early. Musk and the cabinet should be put against each other as much as possible. A key feature for them in this struggle is they won’t be re elected so they are not vulnerable in the same way the Senators and Reps are. They want to execute their power now and if Musk erodes their resources, they can’t do that. How can one help that? Leaks, build paranoia for Musk, Media focus on Musk not the cabinet (I know this isn’t completely possible, and there will be egregious exceptions, but every moment on them is a moment that could be on Musk and he is the Number 1 danger right now). The 25th amendment looms large. Speaking of leaks, Trump is paranoid. Keep the leaks and chats behind his back coming so he grows more suspicious. It can be a self fulfilling prophesy that eventually the cabinet has their hand forced to protect themselves, it is not that crazy, it only takes 50% and Vance. Vance wants to be President more than like any VP ever. The media should do what they did to Biden but ratchet it up 10,000%. Will they? Probably not, but independent media can. This also gives MAGA a cognitive dissonance out. “He was great once but he’s gone crazy so we weren’t wrong but he needs to be stopped now.”—I have mixed feelings because I want them to realize they were wrong but honestly I care more about salvaging the Republic now. Does someone who is 40 or 50 want to be a pariah their entire life after Trump dies? I doubt it. MAGA may continue but it won’t be the movement it is now once Trump is gone so what will be their future? Fabulous wealth? Maybe. But we need to be giving plausible deniability and exit strategies for these team members to not support or facilitate Trump’s worst impulses including going against the court. We need a clear path for states to be willing to support the Supreme Court in holding someone in contempt. There is constitutional precedent for States aiding to execute Supreme Court orders, a not too wild interpretation is all that is needed to empower states to supply or have their law enforcement deputized. Further, as I mentioned before, there is a reference for the court appointing someone for There is constitutional precedent for States aiding to execute Supreme Court orders, a not too wild interpretation is all that is needed to empower states to supply or have their law enforcement deputized. Further, as I mentioned before, there is a reference for the court appointing someone for civil contempt. There needs to be chatter on this so everyone in his regime thinks that it is AT LEAST POSSIBLE and so raises the risk of them being collaborators. At least one blue state needs to indicate they are willing to supply their law enforcement . I think this capability needs to be developed for actual potential use but even if not, the credible threat of it is more pressure on Trump’s administrators that being full on collaborators in the destruction of the rule of law is maybe too risky for them. A way to make this more credible is to use state level actors to protect against illegal deportations, get in front of ICE, force ICE to consider physical altercations—they won’t go there, or if they do, they will lose. Escalation is not always a bad thing. ICE has legitimate authority over cases statute gives them authority. They don’t have authority to take legal residents or visa holders into custody and fly them out of the country without due process. The states should be stepping in to increase the cost, risk, and help prevent illegal detainment.



With the right incentives, pressures, and credible judicial enforcement back ups, the court defiance can be mitigated.

Part IV will focus on the Legislature.

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