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Trump’s Great Big Beautiful Recession [1]

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Date: 2025-04-11

Trump’s Great Big Beautiful Recession

America is bracing for a recession. So much for the soft landing that President Biden and Vice President Harris delivered—now the “Airplane of State” appears to be in a nosedive, much like every other metaphorical crash since Trump returned to office.

In his first term, Trump loudly took credit for an economy that was, in truth, a product of the Obama administration’s steady recovery from the Great Recession of 2008. Like a carnival barker, Trump sold the illusion that he’d rescued the nation from the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Economy he inherited—despite inheriting strong job growth, low unemployment, and a rising stock market.

Now we’re experiencing déjà vu all over again. Trump has inherited yet another thriving economy—this time from Biden and Harris, who steered the nation through the pandemic recovery to become the envy of the world. But once again, Trump is unraveling it. His grand strategy, apparently, is to “Make America Great Again” by resurrecting the failedpolicies of the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. His stated goal is to revive U.S.manufacturing—a noble but economically irrational cause. And, as always, hisrationale keeps shifting. Lately, he claims he’s open to negotiating tariffs,which is code for demanding that every other nation kneel and kiss the ring.

The stock market initially rallied whenTrump magnanimously announced he would cap most tariffs at 10%—except forChina, of course—and promised not to raise them again for 90 days—except forChina. That fleeting market optimism evaporated quickly. This so-called “deadcat bounce” (from the phrase, “Even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from agreat height”) was short-lived. Investors soon realized the effective tariffrate under Trump’s plan would average 27%, higher than the 20% underSmoot-Hawley. For context, the U.S. effective tariff rate was just 2.5% a yearago. (Source: https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/fiscal-and-economic-effects-revised-april-9-tariffs)

And, just to put the icing on Trump’s tariffcake, China hiked its tariffs on U.S. goods from 84% to 125%, mirroring Trump’snew 125% tariff on Chinese imports; so much for forcing China to its knees.Instead, Trump has become a dead cat playing chicken with America’sthird-largest trading partner.

So, we don’t need to learn new words;we just need to remind ourselves of the meaning of two words. A recession istwo consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The signs include risingunemployment, falling consumer spending, shrinking industrial output, anddeclining investment. But confirming a recession takes time—typically sevenmonths after it begins.

For context, Biden’s GDP growth over hispresidency was 3.2% compared to Trump’s first term of 2.3%. (Source: https://www.investopedia.com/gdp-growth-by-president-8604042) Now, it’s entirely possible Trump’s second term will begin with a recession.

But we learned that Trump, who oncecoveted a booming stock market and a strong economy, is surprisingly at peacewith a recession—as long as it doesn’t become a depression. How quaint. TheGreat Recession that began in December 2007 lasted 18 months. Is that whatawaits us, or will it be worse?

A depression is a much deeper economiccontraction—GDP falls 10% or more for at least 24 months. It’s defined bymassive unemployment, widespread business failures, financial collapse, and atotal loss of confidence in the economy.

As of now, the risk of a recession inthe next 12 months is estimated between 40% and 50%. We may be witnessing theearly days of Trump’s Great Big Beautiful Recession—one built not on economicfundamentals but on chaos, retaliation, and the art of blowing things up.

Day 81: days left to January 20, 2029: 1,380 days

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