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Blink. Blink. Blink. [1]
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Date: 2025-04-10
That’s not a cursor blinking in the middle of your blue computer screen. Since Liberation Day on April 2, 2025, it has felt like we’ve been staring at an economic death screen.
For whatever reason, Trump seemed okay with the stock market losing $11.1 trillion since January 20, 2025—when he notably didn’t put his hand on the Bible during his swearing-in. But in the early hours of Wednesday, April 9, 2025, something more alarming happened: investors worldwide began dumping U.S. government bonds—Treasury bills, notes, and bonds—all instruments backed by the “full faith and credit” of the United States. Why? Because investors have lost faith in Trump’s America. The same Trump who has declared bankruptcy six times and now obsessively wields tariffs to reshape the global economy.
Normally, when U.S. equities fall, money flows into the bond market—a safe haven. That didn’t happen, which is a bit ironic since, as Mehreen Khan writes, “The Trump administration has often complained of the ‘exorbitant burden’ of having the world’s reserve currency —the dollar — and the world’s reserve asset — U.S. Treasury bonds.” (Source:
https://www.thetimes.com/business-money/economics/article/are-investors-losing-faith-in-the-us-ccqvpwk6f?utm)
Trump was spooked by the possibility of destroying that “exorbitant burden” through a bond market crash—the very kind of crisis that forced Liz Truss, British Prime Minister, to resign in 2022 after her reckless economic plans triggered a massive sell-off in U.K. government bonds.”
Trump blinked. Not a wink—a blink. A wink might suggest this was part of some grand plan. It wasn’t, despite Republicans praising Trump’s art of the deal. This was panic. He reversed course because we were standing at the edge of an economic cliff. The so-called “pause” he announced was nothing of the sort: he cut most tariffs to 10% for 90 days, a gesture meant to calm panic. But let’s be real: that’s not low. The average U.S. tariff rate in early 2024 was 2.5%. (Source:
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2025-04-02/us-tariff-rate-rockets-to-22-highest-since-1910-fitch-economist-says)
This “pause” still quadruples last year’s baseline. And it’s worse when you factor in the 125% tariff on Chinese imports, which made up 13.4% of total U.S. imports in 2024. (Source:
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/02/u-s-imports-from-china-have-fallen-by-less-than-u-s-data-indicate/) Do the math, and the new effective tariff rate works out to roughly 22%—almost ten times the rate from a year ago. (Source:
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/04/a-real-time-us-effective-tariff-rate-measure)
Crisis averted? Trump and his Republican enablers might think so. But let’s be clear:
1 Trump has inflicted lasting damage on America’s economic trustworthiness.
2 He has introduced instability into a rules-based international order.
3 The stock market’s recovery will likely be slow and painful.
4 Consumer confidence is shaken.
5 Inflation may rebound.
6 Job growth will probably suffer.
7 And with a 22% effective tariff rate, the U.S. is at serious risk of sliding into recession.
Trump’s approach to China is as crude as it is dangerous. Many Americans cheer as he jams a 125% tariff in China’s eye. Yes, China’s trade behavior needs to be addressed. But this isn’t a strategy—it’s escalation. And it invites retaliation. China may match or exceed Trump’s new tariff. Worse, it may already be unloading U.S. bonds like other nations. Japan has reportedly sold off Treasuries, and capital has flowed into German bonds instead. (Source:
https://www.morningstar.com/markets/us-treasuries-sell-off-trade-war-calls-haven-status-into-question)
China alone holds $761 billion in U.S. debt. If it starts liquidating day by day, the damage to our economy could be profound. It may force the Federal Reserve to step in and prop up the bond market—yet again—undermining confidence even further. What’s clear is this: Trump is not in control. But he is responsible for much of the economic chaos we now face. We just don’t know how deep the damage will go. So much for “bringing down prices on day one.”
Blink. Blink. Blink.
This isn’t a reset. It’s a reckoning.
Day 80: days left to January 20, 2029: 1,381 days
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