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The cost of invading Taiwan has just gone down for China [1]

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Date: 2025-04-09

Gaming out the consequences of this trade war with China, it seems to me the risk of an invasion of Taiwan has gone up.

If I am China I am thinking that trade relationships are a point of leverage keeping me from taking military action to take over the island. Trump has put 104% (now 125%) tariffs on China which will undoubtably cut into trade. This will idle more workers in China. If China mounts a war and invades Taiwan than the demands of the military will require more labor to support the effort not just in terms of soldiers, but all of the production and logistics support behind that military effort.

China is being especially singled out now that Trump has suspended or dialed back tariffs on other countries. They are already paying some of the price of an invasion and will have more workers to keep productive. I hope I am wrong, but I think Trump just tipped the balance in favor of military action by China against Taiwan.

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