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The Relationship Between My Dog And Trump Tariff Policy [1]
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Date: 2025-04-09
Right now my dog is barking furiously out the front window. I'm ignoring it. This will become relevant later.
Today's word of the day is "Capricious": sudden, impulsive, seemingly unmotivated action. Unpredictable change or series of changes. E.g. "American trade policy is capricious."
Trump today backed down substantially, though not completely, on whimsical tariff policy, which now looks like Forest Gump's feather blowing in the random winds of blowhardiness. Trump effectively eliminated his comically absurd "reciprocal trade" formula (I very much doubt you see that formula again) resetting tariffs at an even 10% for everyone, except China whose actual reciprocating tariffs against us were counter-counter-reciprocated to a whopping 125%.
Please note, that would increase the price of a new Apple iphone 16 from $800 to $1,800. However, that would remain a comparative bargain to moving iphone production to the United States where it is estimated it would cost $3,500 to produce the same phone.
It should also be noted the 10% tariff on all other nations will still have substantial inflationary effects. Still the stock market boomed on such news as arsonist Trump took credit for partially putting out the fire he started. It should also be noted Trump claims this is just a 90 day reprieve.
No purpose has yet been given for the reprieve. Trump's stated reason was because people were "getting a little yippy." Yes, he actually said that. And while one trade advisor argued this was the brilliant plan all along, Trump claimed the decision was made on the fly this morning as he worked with advisors and they, "wrote it up from our hearts.” Yes, he actually said that too.
However, I write to make another point. The supposed purpose of Trump's tariff policy is to compel businesses to relocate manufacturing in America. Put yourself in the position of a business manufacturing overseas that might consider, at considerable expense, relocating to the United States to avoid tariffs. We will call your business "Unicorn Inc" because it's doubtful such businesses exist, but this is a make believe exercise.
I have lost count now of how many times Trump has backed off on tariffs. On each occasion when people apparently got too "yippy" he backed down. So as the CEO of Unicorn Inc, Trump has again threatened tariffs sufficient to compel you to spend a whole lot of money to move to America. Do you:
1. Make the decision to move at enormous cost and business risk?
2. Or just wait it out to see if it really happens? You might reasonably believe the President of the United States is just making some yippy about tariffs.
So far all the tariffs yippy has been from Donald Trump. He barks a big game out the window but quickly converts all the bluster to a whimper. There's little reason to take him more seriously than I take my dog.
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