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“I could care less” [1]

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Date: 2025-04-08

Last Friday, the stock market had its worst day since before COVID. While Americans watched their retirement funds tumble and worried about the thousands of dollars they would pay in regressive taxation, President Trump played golf and hosted a candlelight dinner at Mara Lago.

Trump once said of his backers, “We got more money. We got more brains. We got better houses, apartments. We got nicer boats. We’re smarter than they are.” This March, when asked if he was concerned about the impact his 25% tariffs might have, he replied, “I couldn’t care less.”

On April 2, 2025, Donald Trump rolled out a sweeping new tariff plan that hits every single import into the U.S. with a 10% tax. For many countries, the rate is much higher. Trump says this move will level the playing field and bring jobs back. But if you're a median-income American family, you're probably wondering: what does this actually mean for your wallet, your job, and the economy at large? Spoiler: it’s not great.

Trump says this move will level the playing field and bring jobs back. However, the underlying rationale—that achieving an equal balance of trade with every country will somehow strengthen the U.S. economy—simply doesn’t hold water. Just because America imports goods from very poor countries does not mean that these countries can afford U.S. products in return. Targeted, very selective tariffs aimed at specific products might be a useful tool in certain situations, but these blanket tariffs are a blunt instrument that ignores the economic realities of disparate global markets.

Let’s start with the basics. A 10% tariff on all imports is essentially a tax on almost everything Americans buy. Add the even steeper country-specific tariffs — 54% on Chinese goods, 20% on EU imports, and 40-50% on goods from developing nations — and you get price hikes across the board. We’re talking clothes, shoes, electronics, furniture, food — everyday stuff. Yale’s Budget Lab estimates this will cost the average U.S. household about $3,800 over the next year. That’s real money for middle-class families who are already watching their budgets.

Take clothing. Prices are projected to jump 17%. Why? Because we import a ton of clothes from Vietnam, China, and Indonesia — all now facing massive duties. Same story with shoes. Nike makes about half its shoes in Vietnam. Those costs are getting passed to you, the buyer. Furniture? Expect to pay 10-46% more, thanks to the same tariff logic. Even restaurants are feeling it: some are already raising menu prices because ingredients like imported rice are more expensive.

It’s not just about shopping, either. This tariff wave is hitting businesses hard. The day after Trump’s announcement, the stock market tanked. The S&P 500 dropped over 4%. Companies that depend on global supply chains — automakers, tech giants, big retailers — saw their stocks nosedive. Stellantis has already laid off workers and paused production in some North American factories. GM is scrambling to ramp up domestic parts sourcing but warns of interim disruption.

Why does this matter? When companies start hurting, they stop hiring—or worse, they start firing. That means fewer jobs, slower wage growth, and less spending power—especially dangerous for a consumer-driven economy like the U.S.

And there’s a broader economic risk here. Experts at AMP Capital say the chance of a U.S. recession just jumped to 40%. JPMorgan calls the economy "perilously close" to contraction. Inflation is back on the table, but without the strong job market to balance it. Think 1970s-style stagflation — not a great flashback.

Then there’s the political fallout. Trump’s base includes a lot of working-class voters who supported him in hopes of a stronger economy. But these tariffs are going to hit many of them first and hardest. The irony? Areas that voted for Trump — manufacturing-heavy regions, farm states — are also among the most exposed. In 2018, retaliatory tariffs crushed soybean exports and farm incomes. History may be repeating itself.

Internationally, this policy is straining alliances. Canada, the EU, and China have all announced or are preparing retaliation. Canada’s even floated scaling back investment in the U.S. France wants to halt new business deals. China is fuming. Allies feel blindsided. Global trade is on the verge of a tit-for-tat spiral.

And the Global South? Devastated. Countries like Madagascar, which depend on niche exports like vanilla, suddenly face tariffs as high as 47%. Workers in Vietnam’s garment factories and small farmers in sub-Saharan Africa are bracing for job losses. The idea that U.S. exporters can make up for lost trade with rich countries by selling more to poorer ones is, to quote one trade expert, "fantasy." Those countries can’t afford U.S. products anyway.

Even supporters of the tariffs admit the benefits will take time. Maybe a decade, according to some manufacturers. But people are paying the costs now. And there’s no guarantee the promised factory jobs will ever materialize. In 2018, Trump’s washing machine tariffs led to a 12% price spike — and cost consumers $1.5 billion annually — while creating relatively few jobs. That’s not exactly a winning formula.

Public opinion is split. Some folks — especially in places that have lost factories — see tariffs as necessary medicine. Others, especially younger workers and those in service sectors, see rising prices with no upside. Even some Republicans are breaking ranks. Senator Chuck Grassley from Iowa warned that the tariffs could tank farm exports again. Business leaders are anxious. A Midwestern manufacturing CEO called the policy a “gut punch.”

The bottom line: this is a huge, risky economic experiment. Tariffs of this magnitude haven’t been seen since the 1930s — and that didn’t end well. Back then, the Smoot-Hawley tariffs triggered a global trade collapse. Today’s world is even more interconnected, so the potential damage could be worse.

If you’re a median-income family, you’re facing higher prices on nearly everything and growing uncertainty about your job. If you’re in another country that exports to the U.S., you may lose your livelihood. If you’re a policymaker, you’re watching this with a mix of hope and dread.

We’ll know in the next 6–12 months if this gamble pays off or becomes a case study in how not to run trade policy. Until then, brace yourself: it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

References

1. Mason, Jeff, David Ljunggren, and Andy Sullivan. “Trump’s Tariffs Spur Trade War Threats, Fears of Pricier iPhones.” Reuters, April 3, 2025 .

2. Rugaber, Christopher. “Trump’s Tariff Push Is a Race against Time, and Potential Voter Backlash.” Associated Press (via WRAL.com), April 3, 2025 .

3. Oliver, Shane. “Liberation (or Rather Retro) Day – Some Initial Thoughts.” Livewire Markets, April 3, 2025 .

4. Fettig, David. “What Washing Machines Can Teach Us about the Cost of Tariffs.” UChicago News, April 22, 2019 .

5. Amiti, Mary, Stephen J. Redding, and David E. Weinstein. “New China Tariffs Increase Costs to U.S. Households.” Liberty Street Economics (Federal Reserve Bank of New York blog), May 23, 2019 .

6. CNN transcript of Trump speech from January 7, 2019

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