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Republicans face challenging math in the 2026 House elections - could the Senate also be in play? [1]
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Date: 2025-04-06
Midterms in the House
Midterm US House elections do not favor the incumbent party. In the 20 midterm elections between 1946 and 2022, the President’s party has only increased its margin twice. In 1998 (Clinton’s second term), the Democrats picked up five seats. In 2002 (Bush Jr’s first term), the GOP picked up eight. The incumbent President picking up seats is so rare that when the Democrats lost ‘only’ 9 in 2022, it was considered a ‘win.’
Based on that fact alone, the GOP faced headwinds to keep its slim majority in 2026. However, there are early signs that the result could be worse than historical statistics suggest. Trump’s approval rating is declining . His tariff policy has led to monumental stock market losses . The voters hate his DOGE job massacre . And before the end of 2025, the consumer will have a good idea of how inflationary his tariff and mass expulsion policies will be.
However, we already have clues on how the electorate feels about the current regime.
The Democrats always seemed unlikely to win either of the two vacant US House seats in last week’s special elections in Florida. An outlier poll suggested they had a chance in FL 6, but the GOP held that seat and FL 1 — both by 14% margins. On the surface, that appears to be a solid result for Republicans. It is not. In the November general election, the GOP won FL 1 by 32% and FL 6 by 33%.
For argument’s sake, let’s call it a 15% shift to Democrats. Let’s consider the GOP’s margins in all 2024 races. And ask how many seats they won by 15% or less. The answer is 43. Here’s a handy summation of margins from Ballotpedia:
The arithmetically agile reader will notice that the number of Republican House seats adds up to 209, while they actually won 220. Why the shortfall? I don’t know. But it only means that the known total of seats the GOP won by less than 15%, to wit 43, might be greater. But even if it is only 43, that will be more than the 40 seats Trump lost in his first term.
In addition to the Florida results pointing to choppy water for the Republicans, the High Court race in Wisconsin also shows the Republicans are in a fragile position. In that race, the MAGA candidate had the advantage of $20 million poured into the race by Elon Musk — which I agree was offset by him showing up and proving he has the electoral charisma of baby vomit and the oratorical skills of a bar drunk with strep throat.
The pundits expected a tight race in a toss-up state won by Trump in 2024. However, the liberal candidate (it was technically a non-partisan race), Susan Crawford, won the race over the conservative by 10% — despite being outspent by $7.8 million in the $100+ million race.
Here are the worst results for an incumbent party since 1946. Will 2026 make the list?
None of the above should be taken as a sure sign of anything. But it should motivate Democrats to attack the hustings with vigor — despite being led by schoolmarm Chuck Schumer and the modern-day Hamlet, Hakeem Jeffries.
Luckily, the Democratic candidates are on the ground, narrowing margins in ruby red districts and winning the races they can. Who cares if the party dithers in DC? Let them just stay out of the way.
MIdterms in the Senate
The Senate is a stretch for Democrats. However, given the Republican performance in the off-year elections, they must play as if they can win. Unlike the 2024 debacle, they will only have to defend 13 seats compared to the Republican’s 20. The Democrats must pick up four seats to gain the majority as the GOP holds the tiebreaker in JD Vance.
Assuming they hold on to all their current seats, their best chance to get the four they need are in Florida (Cook Partisan Voting Index PVI R+3), North Carolina (PVI R+3), Texas (PVI R+5), Iowa (PVI R +6), and Ohio (PVI R +6) after that lies Alaska and South Carolina (both PVI +8).
Realistic? Not in normal times. But we are not in normal times.
Addendum:
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