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Even RFK Jr.'s own numbers show the unvaxxed are at least 142 times more likely to die from measles [1]
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Date: 2025-03-30
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is an odd fit for MAGA. Not just because he is the scion of a totemic liberal family but also because he still has a residual respect for facts. Although he made his political bones as an anti-vaxxer, he has not entirely dismissed the science behind vaccination.
On Sunday, The New York Post published a piece from the Secretary of Health and Human Services titled:
ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.: Measles outbreak is call to action for all of us MMR vaccine is crucial to avoiding potentially deadly disease
Credit where credit is due, he comes down on the side of vaccination. Although he cannot completely let go of his 'vaccine hesitancy' (a polite way of saying his 'career-long rejection of truth, facts, and the scientific method').
For instance, in his generally pro-vaccine piece, he says:
We must engage with communities to understand their concerns, provide culturally competent education, and make vaccines readily accessible for all those who want them.
Mass vaccination works when it is compulsory. We cannot have a country of children free from preventable diseases if we rely on those "who want them" to get their kids vaccinated.
In case you missed the point, he adds:
The decision to vaccinate is a personal one.
This statement is entirely at odds with his very following sentence.
Vaccines not only protect individual children from measles, but also contribute to community immunity, protecting those who are unable to be vaccinated due to medical reasons.
However, the headline of this diary promised some math. So here it is. Kennedy gave measles stats:
The current Texas outbreak has predominantly affected children, with 116 of the 146 cases occurring in individuals under 18 years of age. The DSHS reports that 79 of the confirmed cases involved individuals who had not received the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine, while 62 cases had unknown vaccine status. At least five had received an MMR vaccine.
Let's look at those numbers while considering that c.90% of kids in Texas have at least one dose of the measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine. Also, let's put the unknown vaccine status deaths aside for now and focus on the 84 we know were either vaccinated or not.
If the MMR vaccine did not affect measles, then we would expect 90% of measles deaths to occur in vaccinated people — in this sample, 76. And 10% (8) to happen in the unvaxxed. That is obviously not the case.
If you calculate the death rate for the vaxxed vs. unvaxxed, based on death numbers by vaccination status and the overall vaccination rate, you will see that the unvaxxed die at a rate 142 times greater than the unvaxxed.
Here's the math:
That is the best-case scenario. Now, let's add in the deaths of people with an unknown vaccination status. Ask yourself: if you do not know a person's vaccination status, are they more likely to be vaccinated or not?
The answer is "not".
If someone is vaccinated, there's an easily accessed health record. If they are not vaccinated, it is far harder to ascertain they are not. (In fact, it is impossible to prove a negative.) So common sense and logic suggest that if you have looked for proof of vaccination and can't find it, the subject is far less likely to have been vaccinated than to have been vaccinated.
The bottom line is that the number is almost guaranteed to exceed 142 times.
Also, if people use the five deaths of vaccinated people as 'proof' that the vaccine does not guarantee you will stay alive, they are correct. However, using that to justify not giving your kid their shots is nuts. Especially when you consider that two shots are recommended by the vaccine stats include people with only one dose of the MMR.
Imagine you face a firing squad. You are offered a bulletproof vest. You ask for the stats. You are told that while the vest increases your chances of surviving by 142 times, there is still a chance you could die — you are going to put on the vest. Unless you are a moron.
Some sophists will argue that the numbers do not consider the measles mortality rate. They could claim that because the death rate is very low, the vaccine is not essential in mortality calculations as most people do not die.
To that, I say:
A: Death is not the only health consequence of measles: The CDC outlines potential prognoses (also add ear infections and diarrhea)
Severe complications in children and adults Some people may suffer from severe complications, such as pneumonia (infection of the lungs) and encephalitis (swelling of the brain). They may need to be hospitalized and could die. Hospitalization. About 1 in 5 unvaccinated people in the U.S. who get measles is hospitalized.
Pneumonia. As many as 1 out of every 20 children with measles gets pneumonia, the most common cause of death from measles in young children.
Encephalitis. About 1 child out of every 1,000 who get measles will develop encephalitis (swelling of the brain). This can lead to convulsions and leave the child deaf or with intellectual disability.
B: Do you really want to gamble on kids' lives — no matter how long the odds?
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[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/3/30/2313447/-Even-RFK-Jr-s-own-numbers-show-the-unvaxxed-are-at-least-142-times-more-likely-to-die-from-measles?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web
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