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Why is Russia Demanding Democratic Elections in Ukraine? [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2025-03-28
Today let’s dive into something that might seem totally backwards at first: Why is Russia—a country not exactly known for free and fair elections—suddenly demanding democratic elections in Ukraine?
NBC story today explained that White House administration in an unusual move in this upside down Bizzaro administration is not siding with Putin — for now — but as it Trump pressures Ukraine to alter the minerals deal — could we see Putin get his wish to push Ukraine into a democratic election — and for what purpose? After all Zelensky is very popular — so what gives?
The Ultimate Catch-22
First, let's talk game theory—basically how people or countries make strategic decisions when their choices affect each other. Putin's demand for Ukrainian elections is a perfect example of what game theorists call a "dominated strategy" where your opponent loses no matter what they choose.
Here's the trap Russia has set:
Option 1: Ukraine Refuses to Hold Elections
If Ukraine refuses to hold elections during wartime (which is actually prohibited by Ukrainian law), Russia gets to say: "See? They're not democratic! Their president is illegitimate!" Putin has repeatedly claimed Zelensky is "illegitimate" because elections scheduled for 2024 were postponed, arguing he has "no right to sign any peace agreements" as a result.
Option 2: Ukraine Agrees to Hold Elections
If Ukraine caves to pressure and holds elections during an active war:
Ukrainian soldiers would have to leave the front lines to vote
Millions of refugees couldn't participate
Russia would almost certainly launch cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns
Russian-occupied territories couldn't participate
The results would be chaotic and contested
As a former Western official explained, lifting martial law to hold elections "could allow mobilized soldiers to leave the military, trigger an exodus of hard currency and *could prompt large numbers of draft-age men to migrate. (I disagree with that take, but it’s a risk)
Thus, Russia sets the stage to exploit internal divisions and corruption to gradually install pro-Russian leaders. This playbook (different notes, same tune) that led to Pro-Russian puppet president that led to the historic Orange Revolution to throw the bum out and hold free elections.
This is a classic example of a "heads I win, tails you lose" strategy. No matter what Ukraine chooses, Russia benefits.
The Hypocrisy Factor
Let's address the elephant in the room: Russia's own democratic credentials are... questionable at best and but better described as completed fabricated anti-democratic elections.
Russia held its own presidential election in March 2024, which international observers criticized as having "unprecedented levels of fraud and irregularity". Putin has effectively ruled Russia for over two decades through what many experts describe as managed or controlled elections.
So why would a country with such issues demand "democratic" elections elsewhere?
Because democracy isn't the actual goal—Russia’s strategic advantage is subversion of democratic elections — they know how to play dirty, social engineer uniformed voters and leverage cyber-hacks to undermine the results.
Russia's Election Interference Playbook
Russia’s love for democracy is because they've successfully used active measures to interfere with the results around the world. And Ukraine was their first testing ground.
The 2014 Ukrainian Election Hack
In 2014, Russian hackers launched a sophisticated attack on Ukraine's presidential election. The pro-Russian hacking group CyberBerkut (linked to Russian military intelligence) destroyed key vote tallying files, leaked private emails from Ukraine's Central Election Commission, and attempted to falsely announce an ultra-nationalist candidate as the winner.
Russian Channel One even broadcast the fake results, despite the fact that the candidate actually received less than 1% of the vote!
The Georgia Russian-Tail
In 2008, Russia pioneered the integration of cyberattacks with conventional warfare during its conflict with Georgia. Cyberattacks began three weeks before the shooting war, intensifying alongside military operations. They used denial-of-service attacks, traffic diversion through Russian servers, and defacement of government websites.
Further data scientist have shown that the 2024 elections in Georgia show evidence of election tabulation hacking, namely that the results exhibit behavior that algorithms for vote-switching. This so-called Russian-Tail establishes that Russian cyber attacks are more than just interference, they directly alter the results . This established a template for future hybrid warfare that combines traditional military operations with cyber tactics.
The Disinformation Machine
Beyond direct hacking, Russia operates vast disinformation networks aimed at manipulating public opinion around elections:
Operation Doppelgänger
This ongoing Russian influence operation creates fake websites that mimic legitimate news sources. In 2025, German authorities warned about "Doppelgänger" targeting their elections, explaining the operation has been spreading "pro-Russian narratives and disinformation aimed particularly at discrediting Western foreign policy generally and in particular support for Ukraine".
Throughout 2024 elections in western countries, Russia deployed massive disinformation campaigns across France, Germany, and Italy. A report by Dutch consultancy Trollrensics found "with absolute certainty" that large coordinated networks of accounts were influencing public discourse on social media, promoting far-right political parties and pro-Russian narratives.
The SocMed Army of Darkness
Russia's Internet Research Agency (IRA)—often called a "troll farm"—creates thousands of fake social media accounts to spread divisive content and pro-Russian narratives. During the 2016 U.S. election, the IRA's activities were so extensive that the Department of Justice later revealed their budget actually increased by 70% between 2016 and 2018.
Why This Matters for Ukraine Now
In March 2025, Putin escalated his demands, stating "Ukraine's government should be replaced by a temporary administration that would end the war and hold elections". This came as he met with President Trump's envoy, strategically leveraging the Trump administration's similar calls for Ukrainian elections.
For Ukrainians, this is another existential threat. The call for election is based in subversion not sincerity . Because Ukraine’s constitution requires they end martial law to hold elections, the domino’s could fall into chaos (and Russia’s favor) and lead to loss of their sovereignty just as though the tanks in Kyiv weren’t repelled by Javelins and the daring might of their military.
The bottom line is that when Putin calls for "democratic elections" in Ukraine, he's not advocating for democracy—he's executing a strategic maneuver designed to destabilize Ukraine and strengthen Russia's position.
After all, this strategy has worked before in Ukraine and worked again in 2024 in all countries within it’s sphere of subversive influence.
[END]
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