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QOP in disarray: Could be 'well into the fall' before budget passes [1]

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Date: 2025-03-24

There are many reasons to criticize the Democratic Party, and I believe we are in the middle of a (mostly) healthy “family discussion” about the best path forward for the party to save America from Trump 2.0. However one area that gets completely, unfairly overlooked when dissing Dems IMO is the insanely effective party discipline among congressional Democrats in the 117th Congress (2021-2022) — inarguably one of the most productive of the modern era — which they used to advance a number of progressive causes, with just a 5-vote majority in the House (221-211) and a literal 50-50 Senate. More on that in a minute.

In stark contrast, let’s everyone please take a look at the sorry (for them) state of the QOP budget negotiations. I am CRACKING UP because according to The Hill, the Senate likely won’t pass Trump’s “border security, energy and tax agenda” until at least July — possibly “well into the fall”:

“Thune said he thought that the House’s timeline on this was totally unrealistic and that the House doesn’t have their ducks in a row, and their budget resolution has to be completely reworked, and this idea that we do it by April or May is just ridiculous,” the source said. Johnson said in January that House Republican leaders were “targeting April” for final passage of a budget reconciliation package that would extend the expiring 2017 tax cuts and address border security, energy reform and defense spendings.

Fall 2025 will span from Sept. 22 to Dec. 21. They are certainly setting expectations low! POLITICO is also reporting on a “chicken-and-egg situation” causing a “quiet standoff” between the House & Senate QOP members:

Yet nearly every key decision remains unsettled. They include how deep to cut into social safety-net spending, how to placate swing-seat lawmakers over a key tax break, how to account for the cost of extending existing tax cuts and how many more breaks they can pile on top.

LOL! If that’s true, this is absolutely pathetic for the QOP — but great for the resistance. Not only will that buy us more time for Democrats to hone their legislative & communications strategies, but months of public discussions & negotiations over the details of the staggering budget cuts could doom Republicans politically. From Axios:

The big picture: Democratic leaders see an opening to go on offense against Trump and Republicans over their plans to cut taxes while slashing federal programs. It's similar to the playbook they ran ahead of the 2018 midterms when Democrats made Trump's tax cuts so unpopular that Republicans barely mentioned them in their campaign messaging.

These cuts, if they stick to their plan, will be far more unpopular & consequential than Obamacare for one — and look what happened to Democrats in 2010. We’re talking rural hospitals closing en masse across the country if these Medicaid cuts go through. Who knows what will happen to nursing homes, etc. This is the moment the QOP have been waiting for, and it’s deliciously now a moment they cannot hide from anymore. They are either going to pass their unpopular cuts on party line votes, or fold from public pressure & come back to Democrats to pass a budget as they have numerous times in the past. Either way is good for the country. And that’s not to mention the debt ceiling will likely need to be extended separate from/prior to the budget.

I believe the resistance is starting to get its sea legs, congressional Democrats are waking up & opposition will become stronger in the coming months as this all unfolds. I know some people don’t like to hear it, but our plan MUST be a 2026 plan for Democrats to win back control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Once we do that, we must win the Senate in 2028 & presidency. Everything depends on that.

And if you need convincing that the Democratic Party is worth supporting, let’s take a look back at what Democrats accomplished in the 117th Congress, shall we? While Republicans will apparently need several more months to pass Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” policies, disciplined Democrats had already passed (via reconciliation) the $2 TRILLION American Rescue Plan Act by March 10, 2021. President Biden signed it March 11. The ARPA is often overlooked and forgotten compared to the Inflation Reduction Act, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law & CHIPs & Science Act, but it was more than DOUBLE the size of the 2009 stimulus. Democrats learned that lesson well when designing ARPA, and it had a profound impact on our economy & country:

Obama’s stimulus led to a pitifully weak recovery where unemployment did not reach its pre-recession level for more than eight years, and the lowest quintile of earners saw the lowest wage growth until mid-2014. Biden’s stimulus led to the fastest recovery from a recession in at least four decades, and the longest period of sub-4 percent unemployment since the 1960s. It created a labor market so hot that not only did the bottom quintile see the fastest wage growth, it was so fast that roughly a third of the post-1980 increase in wage inequality was reversed in just a couple of years.

And that’s not to mention the unprecedented hundreds of billions of dollars that ARPA funneled directly to state & local governments (designed to bypass hostile QOP state/county officials) via the State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds (SLFRF) program. Brookings has comprehensive coverage of this program & its “transformative”, largely unsung effects.

The reason I bring up the American Rescue Plan Act is to remind us all that Democrats had already passed a $2T legislative policy agenda — essentially a liberal wishlist — by this point in time in 2021. Democrats then went on to trick the Rs into voting for the landmark CHIPs & Science Act in 2022, then immediately announcing the landmark (newly renamed) Inflation Reduction Act. They used reconciliation to AGAIN pass the party-line, Earth-saving IRA in 2022 with the same razor-thin congressional margins. Not to mention a handful of other hugely consequential laws, such as the Electoral Count Act update which could become extremely important very soon.

Bottom line — Democrats had the vision, competence, pre-planning, diligence, intelligence & compassion to pass the transformative ARPA within 1.5 months, and several other truly consequential laws. They aren’t perfect but they deserve our votes. If we give them our votes in 2026 (and any special elections before then), we have a chance of making out of this nightmare alive. If the Republicans’ legislative agenda implodes & their infighting continues, that helps us persevere & hold strong until the 2026 elections.

Consider the lessons learned & leftward shift between the 2 most recent Democratic governing “trifectas”: 2009 vs. 2021. Keep up the pressure internally but just imagine… if Democrats can win in 2026 & 2028, the world is our oyster.

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[1] Url: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/3/24/2312293/-QOP-in-disarray-Could-be-well-into-the-fall-before-budget-passes?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web

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