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Ukraine Invasion Day 1,125: tension between RU Central Bank and the Kremlin over economy [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2025-03-23

Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of March 22 and 23.

The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 147 Shahed and decoy drones from the directions of Bryansk and Kursk cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.[66] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 97 drones over southern, northern, western, and central Ukraine and that 25 decoy drones were "lost," likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference. The Ukrainian Air Force noted that Russian forces used a large number of strike drones (at least 122) and a relatively small number of decoy drones (25) in the overnight strikes. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Odesa, and Donetsk oblasts.[67] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed over 1,115 air targets between March 17 and 23, including 625 Shahed drones and 250 reconnaissance drones.[68] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russian forces launched over 1,580 guided glide bombs, almost 1,100 strike drones, and 15 missiles of various types against Ukraine in the past week (March 17 to 23).[69] Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 97 drones over southern, northern, western, and central Ukraine

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US and Ukrainian officials are meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on the evening of March 23 to discuss the contours of the temporary moratorium on long-range strikes and a possible temporary maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea. An unnamed US official told the Financial Times (FT) on March 23 that the talks will cover the technical aspects of the temporary strikes moratorium, including monitoring and enforcement mechanisms, and Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Heorhiy Tykhyi added that the talks will define the scope of this ceasefire.[1] Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov is leading the Ukrainian delegation, which also includes Ukrainian Presidential Office deputy heads Pavlo Palisa and Ihor Zhovka, Deputy Energy Minister Mykola Kolisnyk, MFA State Secretary Oleksandr Karasevich, and several unspecified military officers.[2] FT reported that the US delegation includes US National Security Council member Andrew Peek and State Department Policy Planning Director Michael Anton.[3] A Ukrainian official told the New York Times (NYT) that the US and Ukrainian delegations may hold additional talks on March 24 depending on the progress of negotiations.[4] The US-Ukrainian meeting is ongoing as of this publication and ISW will report on the details of the talks in-depth on March 24. understandingwar.org/... x x YouTube Video x Russia Is Losing the War of Attrition-Ukraine not on the verge of collapse. That makes the Trump administration’s decisions shortsighted and tragic-Pessimistic analysis never paid attention to the weak underpinning of Russian military, economy and inner turmoil www.theatlantic.com/internationa...



[image or embed] — Clive McCarthy 🇺🇦 🇨🇦 🇪🇺 🇫🇷 🇫🇮 🇳🇴 🇩🇰 🇮🇸 🇸🇪 🇳🇱 🇪🇪 🇱🇹 🇱🇻 (@clivemccarthy.bsky.social) March 11, 2025 at 6:53 PM x The Kiel Institute for the World Economy - a German think tank - attempted to estimate the economic cost to Germany of not effectively supporting Ukraine and allowing a Russian victory. Their estimate was between 1% to 2% of German GDP, or 10-20 times higher than current levels of military support.



[image or embed] — Jimmy Rushton (@jimmyrushton.bsky.social) November 20, 2024 at 3:12 PM

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Unconfirmed reports suggest that there is tension between Russian Central Bank Chairperson Elvira Nabiullina and the Kremlin over Russia's high interest rate and wartime monetary policies. A Russian insider source claimed on March 23 that the Russian Federation Council Accounts Chamber (the Russian Federation’s highest audit body) recently initiated an audit of the Russian Central Bank to investigate its monetary policy from 2022 to 2024 and the impact of the interest rate on inflation, budget expenditures, and investment.[5] The source claimed that the investigation is "effectively" an attack on Nabiullina. The insider source claimed that a group of lobbyists from large Russian businesses seek interest rate reductions. ISW cannot independently verify this insider source's claim and has not observed other reporting about the alleged audit. Russian inflation has been rising due to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the Russian Central Bank decided in December 2024 to maintain the key interest rate at 21 percent – the highest Russian interest rate since 2003 – as part of efforts to curb growing inflation rates.[6] The Russian Central Bank‘s interest rate through 2025 has remained relatively conservative despite significant and growing inflationary pressures.[7] The Kremlin has claimed in recent months that the inflation rate is about nine to 10 percent, but these figures are likely far below the actual inflation rate, which is likely closer to 20 to 25 percent.[8] Russia's current interest rate should likely be higher, and the Kremlin likely pressured the Central Bank to keep the rate at 21 percent when the Central Bank should have increased it to curb inflation.[9] Russian President Vladimir Putin has also attempted to shift blame for the rising inflation rate on the Central Bank, and on Nabiullina in particular. This was likely in an effort to draw the ire of the Russian business community away from the Kremlin and onto her, although Nabiullina likely has not been able to exercise fully independent monetary policy. The audit on the Central Bank may be part of the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to apply political pressure on the bank to prevent further interest rate hikes beyond the current rate of 21 percent, manage the expectations and frustrations of the Russian business community, and further the Kremlin's narrative about Russia's economic stability. The Kremlin’s continued manipulation of the Central Bank's decisions is likely hampering the Russian government's ability to enact sound wartime monetary policies.

x 🚫👀 Sanctions against Russia: three years of a big war 🤔 Sanctions have adversely affected the Russian economy; however, they have not significantly undermined its military operations or prompted political transformation. Read analytical article 👇

theukrainianreview.info/sanctions-ag...



[image or embed] — The Ukrainian Review (@theukrainianreview.bsky.social) March 18, 2025 at 3:30 PM

x YouTube Video Key Takeaways: US and Ukrainian officials are meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on the evening of March 23 to discuss the contours of the temporary moratorium on long-range strikes and a possible temporary maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea.

Unconfirmed reports suggest that there is tension between Russian Central Bank Chairperson Elvira Nabiullina and the Kremlin over Russia's high interest rate and wartime monetary policies.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova, and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.

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