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Tracking COUP 2025. How is it going? [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2025-03-22
Your Fun Guide to the 2025 Coup
Just joking. Not really fun at all. It is a coup! Okay, maybe a little ironic.
Context:
This is not “Trump’s” Coup, it is bigger than that. If Trump was gone, the 2025 Coup attempt would continue. Which means, valuable as he is, if he becomes too much of a liability then Trump will have to be neutralized—Martyred, Reaganized (sidelined and humored) or 25th Amendmented (replaced with Vance by his cabinet).
In June of 2017, I wrote an article for the Daily Kos called Is a Trump Coup Possible? where I concluded it was, but was unlikely. That is because my Trump Coup Scorecard showed even within the 2016 Trump Administration there were many high officials, especially retired military, who would not back a coup. This is no longer the case.
There are three key issues that will determine if the 2025 Coup succeeds:
1) The Supreme Court. The military will look to it for deciding if Trump Regime orders are Constitutional or not. While Chief Justice Roberts claims he wants to keep its power, he may decide the way to do that is by submitting to Trump’s Regime.
2) The Resistance. While many institutions and groups have already bent the knee to MAGA—corporations, law firms, Columbia University, corporate Democrats, Red States, some bureaucrats—many others are resisting. And there is growing resistance in the streets. The stronger the resistance in the streets and by institutions of all types, the more likely it is that the coup will fail.
3) The Economy. If the economy gets bad enough, Trump Regime support will collapse even among many of the rich. But not the true believers in ending Democracy, such as Musk, Thiel, Bezos, Zuckerberg, the QAnon nexus, and the hard right of MAGA, which does include much of the GOP elite.
Key Known Dates
April 1, 2025. Wisconsin elections for the deciding State Supreme Court seat. Musk is spending millions of dollars, much of it illegally in straight payouts to people promising to support (vote) for the Right candidate.
April 5, 2025. Mass protests planned nationwide and in Washington D.C. supported by multiple national and local groups. The first real test of Resistance in the streets.
April 20th, 2025. Trump has asked officials in his administration to make a recommendation on implementing the Insurrection Act because illegal immigration represents a national security threat. Fun fact, April 20th is also Hitler’s birthday! Just a coincidence I am sure.
November 3, 2026. Midterm elections. Democrats will probably regain control of the House of Representatives, but not the Senate.
Benchmarks
!!!Bad Benchmarks Met: Coup Progresses
???Good Benchmarks Met: Coup Weakened
!!!Mexican cartels labeled “terrorists” by Trump and/or FBI.
January 20.
Direct White House order.
!!!Trump invokes Alien and Sedition Act of 1798.
March 15.
The Brennan Center defines the rarely used law this way: "The Alien Enemies Act of 1798 is a wartime authority that allows the president to detain or deport the natives and citizens of an enemy nation. The law permits the president to target these immigrants without a hearing and based only on their country of birth or citizenship."
Trump Administration Begins Mass Warrentless Operations Under Alien & Sedition Act.
March 21.
Trump regime claims they don’t need Warrants.
???Lower Courts Block Key Parts of the Coup.
March.
The Trump regime has had many of their actions enjoined or even ruled unconstitutional by lower courts.
Trump Regime directly defies an important court order(s).
March 16.
Until 3/16/25, when faced with clear court orders the Trump administration has obeyed the courts, even if subverting the rulings at the same time, as with obeying the injunction against putting Trans women into the men’s sections of Federal prisons for the plaintiffs, but moving many more Trans inmates not named in the suit.
But on March 16 the Coup started directly defying court injunctions. For example, in trying to deport the Columbia student activist with a Green Card and the case of the Yale Transplant surgeon deported illegally despite a judge’s order.
Still, the Trump regime has not openly broken with the judicial system. So they lie about what they did and appeal to the Supreme Court to shut down the lower court resistance as Trump did on March 21.
US Marshals refuse to enforce important court order. While courts can theoretically appoint people to enforce their orders if the normal authorities refuse, it seems unlikely.
Judge blocking illegal Trump orders is impeached.
!!!Trump launches air and/or sea strikes abroad.
March 15.
Trump begins airstrikes on Yemen with no planned end.
Trump sends U.S. Troops Abroad.
Trump Regime establishes mass detention facilities.
Military bases besides Guantanamo used as concentration camps. Fort Bliss is already being prepared.
U.S. Inflation hits 5%. (It was 4.7 in 2021, 8.0 in 2022, 4.1 in 2023 and 2.9 in 2024).
Dow drops to 30,000 (now at 45,000, was at 16,000 in 2016, 35,000 in 2024).
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807.
The Supreme Court validates Trump invoking the Insurrection Act of 1807.
!!!Individuals labeled terrorists for their Free Speech arrested and/or deported.
March 9.
This has already happened with Mahmoud Khallil.
Antifa, BLM or Pro-Palestine activist groups labeled “terrorist” by Trump White House and/or FBI. In the works.
Trump directly defies a U.S. Supreme Court Ruling.
“Freedom”/Feudal Cities Approved.
The elite anti-democracy club of bizillonaires wants the right to set up their own “freedom” cities where they rule directly. More feudalism than the corporate towns of the 1800s. Yes, they are serious.
Midterm elections (November 2026) cancelled or postponed.
***
Cool Vocabulary:
25th Amendmented: Section 4 allows the Vice-President can legally remove a defective President, with majority support from the Cabinet or a group Congress designates by law.
Accelerationism: The theory popular on both the extreme Right and Left, that claims that things need to get much worse for them to get better. In the case of the 2025 Coup, the chaos of DOGE and other actions by the Trump Administration are designed to so disrupt society that an authoritarian government, short on LAW but high on ORDER, can be implemented.
Coup: “Blow” or “strike” in French. No, not that kind of blow! There are many kinds of coups… coup de main, coup de grace…
We are worried here about coup d’états, coups aimed at state power. See soft coup and self-coup.
Martial Law: Fun fact! There is no provision in the US Constitution or any other U.S. law for Martial Law, which is direct governance by the military. However, it has been implemented none-the-less in the U.S., as in Hawaii during World War II. The Supreme Court later found it to be unconstitutional.
Martyred: False flag assassination.
Reaganzied: As the 40th President was treated most of his second term when his mind was gone…feted, tolerated, watered regularly.
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