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Another Perfect Phone Call [1]
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Date: 2025-03-20
On Tuesday the Krasnov president called Putin to discuss a ceasefire in Ukraine. Ignominiously, he was made to wait one hour, before Putin was done talking to oligarchs. But it’s better than the eight hours Witkoff, the U.S. envoy to Russia, had to endure.
Weeks before, in the Oval Office, Krasnov and his veep did Putin’s bidding and verbally assaulted President Zelensky. “You don’t have any cards with us” was among the least offensive slurs.
David Hambling of Forbes magazine gives his take on this week’s call: Phone Call Reveals Putin’s Fear Of Ukrainian Long-Range Drones. It’s an interesting article in that it cuts through the he said/ he said details and focuses on the actual cards Ukraine and Russia hold.
During the call, Putin agreed to a ceasefire, but a limited one only, a ceasefire that would see a pause only in long-range attacks on energy and infrastructure.
The pause would give Ukraine some respite as it has been
hammered by ever-increasing numbers of Shahed drones. The Russian launched almost 400 Shaheds in February 2024; a year later that number was up to almost 4,000. Waves of more than a hundred Shaheds each night have become common. The drone attacks are focused on Ukraine’s electricity grid, striking power plants and substations. A report by United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission said that at one point 73 per cent of the country’s thermal power generating units were out of action.
But Ukraine survived winter and remains unbowed. This is due to a combination of established anti-drone defenses such as aircraft, missiles, US-made VAMPIRE laser-guided missile systems, Ukraine-made interceptor drones (since April), and (since July) an innovative scheme: the “Sky Fortress.” The Sky Fortress consists of 9,500 cellphones with microphones to listen for incoming drones. Drone flight paths are analyzed by a central computer and communicated to mobile groups equipped with automatic cannons. Ukraine’s anti-drone defenses are reportedly 96% effective.
Russia has not fared as well against Ukraine’s drone attacks on oil production and storage facilities. These have been hammered by drones of all types. Russia’s output has decreased by 10%, which impacts revenues feeding Putin’s war machine. Obviously, Putin has more to gain from a ceasefire.
Especially since Ukraine is poised to build 30,000 long-range drones this year and has a longer-range drone (2,000 km/ 1,200 miles) in the pipeline.
A new Ukrainian long-range ballistic missile announced this week will create further opportunities.
Russian oil and gas targets are left undefended, or air defenses don’t work. Invariably, the fire by “drone debris” excuse is brought up, replacing the careless smoker excuse. In a recent instance, a video claiming to show a Pantsir-S1 shooting down a Lyutyi in Smolensk in January 2025 actually shows it hitting an apartment building. Just like Ukraine, Russia has more territory to defend than systems to defend it with. There are even fewer Pantsir-S1s now because Ukrainian drones have been taking them out. But Ukraine holds the drone advantage, the higher card if you will.
The choice is to defend Moscow or refineries, oil depots and oil pumping stations. The Pantsir also has the unfortunate tendency to roll on its side, as seen in Sochi and Serbia. (it may or may not impact its effectiveness on the battlefield, but a Pantsir on its side is a personal tonic.)
And on March 13, Ukrainian drones reportedly struck a depot storing S-300 surface-to-air missiles. Analyst Marcel Plichta suggests this may be more significant than the strikes on oil facilities.
Sure enough, Ukraine just hit Engels airbase, where missiles are stored, although damage has not been confirmed.
Unquestionably, long-range drone strikes hurt Putin. Allies should pick up the cue and send Ukraine long-range weapons. The Taurus missile comes to mind.
According to the White House readout, negotiations will also begin on the “implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea.” Obviously because Ukraine has been successful
using drone boats as miniature aircraft carriers to launch FPV drone attacks, hitting Russian radar and other targets beyond reach of other weapons.
It should be noted that the phone call proposed a pause of long-range strikes on energy and infrastructure, not frontline clashes where more than 1,000 Russian troops are dying every day. One hour after the call, to nobody’s surprise, Putin launched 145 Shaheds and bombed a power station in Slovyansk.
At least the call has revealed Russia’s vulnerabilities and should encourage Ukraine to keep hitting where it hurts the most: oil and gas facilities — not to mention missile depots.
If you’re on Twitter, please help David Hambling raise his profile. He has stood with Ukraine from Day One.
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