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Canada Demonstrates how a Change in Leadership can Dramatically Alter the Political Landscape [1]
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Date: 2025-03-19
Bloomberg has a very instructive article up on how Justin Trudeau’s decision earlier this year to step down as Canada’s Prime Minister and let his Liberal Party select a new Leader to avoid what was shaping up to be a landslide defeat at the next election is proving to be spectacularly prescient:
Canada’s Liberal Party has jumped into a lead in some public opinion polls on the eve of an election, as voters respond to Justin Trudeau’s exit and Mark Carney’s rise to lead the government. Leger Marketing has the Liberals at 42% among decided voters, compared with 39% for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party. No other party is in double digits in the survey, which was taken from March 14 to 16, the first few days of Carney’s time as prime minister. The survey comes on the heels of a poll published Monday by the Vancouver-based Angus Reid Institute that also has the Liberals at 42%, with the Conservatives at 37%. Support for Carney’s Liberals in the Angus Reid poll has doubled since December. If those numbers were to hold in a national vote, the most probable outcome would be a majority of seats for the Liberals in the House of Commons. It’s a stunning turnaround for a party that seemed left for dead only a few months ago. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland changed everything by quitting on Dec. 16 in a public spat with Trudeau. That month, one Angus Reid poll had the Liberals down to 16% support — and nearly 30 points behind the Conservatives.
For those having trouble reading the graph, all you really need to know is that the top blue line tracks the monthly voter support for the Conservatives as it gradually sinks back under 40%, and the rapidly rising white line tracks the rise of the Liberals since December. Likewise, if the election were to be reduced to a simple popularity contest between the new Liberal Leader Mark Carney and the Conservative’s Pierre Poilievre, it would be an absolute blowout for the Liberals.
Not only does Carney lead Poilievre in net favorability ratings among every demographic, he enjoys an overall favorability of nearly 30% — which increases to 40% among female voters, and 50% among voters aged 55 and older!
The Leger and Angus Reid polls both give Carney a substantial edge on the questions of who is best to handle economic matters and to deal with the Canada-US relationship. In the Leger survey, 45% say the Liberal leader is the best choice to grow the economy, compared with 31% for Poilievre. Carney also holds a 42% to 29% edge when asked who would be best to manage Canada’s relationship with the US and Trump.
Now if only Chuck Schumer would draw the appropriate lesson here and make way for new Democratic leadership in the Senate that will actually fight tooth and nail against the MAGA/Trump/Musk regime’s fascist agenda.
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[1] Url:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/3/19/2311400/-Canada-Demonstrates-how-a-Change-in-Leadership-can-Dramatically-Alter-the-Political-Landscape?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web
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