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On the Brink of a War That Cannot Be Won [1]
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Date: 2025-03-15
Where it all began, in this author’s opinion.
Russia invaded Ukraine using NATO's eastern expansion, which Ukraine was set to join, as an excuse. The US has helped empower Russia with the withdrawal of aid to Ukraine and its support to NATO.
Where we are
Yesterday, a memo was issued to the Pentagon requesting a military action plan to gain “untethered access” to the Panama Canal. There is no doubt that the US intends to regain control and deny China access. The US has already escalated tensions with China by raising tariffs and banning their social media platform, TikTok.
The US intends to annex Canada through economic coercion by imposing damaging tariffs on Canada’s economy, thereby breaking a trade agreement that Trump himself negotiated.
NATO
Canada is one of 31 other countries, including the US, who signed a treaty which formed an alliance among its member countries, NATO, to present a united front and support in their efforts to maintain world peace. Article five states that if one member country is threatened, all members will come to its aid in whatever manner is necessary. The US has been alienating itself from NATO, stating that it will not come to the aid of any member country who has not contributed a 5% share, despite the US contributing only 3.5%. It has been stated that it will only provide forces not needed elsewhere, based on its own priorities.
NATO includes several EU countries, which the US has threatened with 200% tariffs on alcohol imports in retaliation for sanctions imposed on the US over its illegal tariffs on aluminum and steel." The US has publicly criticized the governments of Europe, Romania, and Germany, ironically accusing them of being the type of country that Trump is turning the US into. The US has threatened to take Greenland from Denmark, another NATO member.
Where we might be
If NATO chooses to defend Canada or any of the other member countries that have been threatened, would pit the US against 31 other counties whose combined military strength is comparable to or slightly superior to that of the US. It is likely that China will seize this opportunity to act against the US, possibly in alliance with NATO, as its ties with the EU have strengthened due to US-imposed tariffs and diplomatic alienation.
Other countries that the US has antagonized over the past three months
The US has imposed 30% tariffs on Mexico and renamed the Gulf of Mexico. It has threatened to impose tariffs on Japan and South Korea. The US directed Chevron to pull out of its licensing deal with Venezuela, which will hinder their economy. The US reneged on its deal with Cuba, designating it once again as a state sponsor of terrorism. It also placed economic sanctions on Iran, suspended aid to South Africa, and threatened to cut aid to Egypt and Jordan. Panama is also relevant, as it currently owns and operates the Panama Canal.
Outcome
This is a war that the US cannot win. Even if the closed-door discussions between Russia and the US have devised a plan to divide the EU through military force, Russia has been depleting its own military force, and Putin is about as trustworthy as Trump.
WWIII seems inevitable under Trump’s leadership. We can only hope that other peaceful nations have not closed their doors to asylum seekers.
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