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The Nuclear Umbrella is full of holes. Will it lead to Nuclear Proliferation in Europe? [1]
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Date: 2025-03-12
Discussions are well underway over this side of the pond. France, Germany, and Poland are discussing extending France’s nuclear deterrence, with the obvious call for increased production.
This would never have happened without Agent Orange’s gaslighting of Alignment,
'The fact that the debate on a European nuclear deterrent is open shows the extent of the current upheaval ' Le Monde [Paywall]
Germany and Poland are both signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Merz has been clear: There is no question of Germany becoming a nuclear power. Tusk's message is implicitly just as clear, but in the opposite sense: If Poland needs to acquire a nuclear bomb to protect itself, it will do so. But before that happens, if the American umbrella closes, it would prefer to benefit from French protection.
Its nothing new
The French, who have been preaching to deaf ears for years with their strike force inherited from General de Gaulle, are suddenly very much solicited. Since his speech on the subject at the Ecole de Guerre in 2020, President Emmanuel Macron has proposed a "dialogue" with his European partners on the "European dimension" of France's vital interests, which the national deterrent force is supposed to protect, but to little avail. "Be my guest!," he replied by way of invitation to German MPs and experts who questioned him, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, a few days after this speech.
The reticence of Germany was always easily explained.
For Germany, whose democracy was shaped by the American victor after its defeat in the Second World War, this shock is like an existential reversal. "It's easier for you French to digest than for us," said a senior German official this week. For him, if the Zeitenwende, the "new era" proclaimed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz three days after the invasion of Ukraine, put an end to the post-Cold War period 1989-2022; today, the turn taken by Trump closes the chapter written since 1945 by the US invested in a new world order.
Remember?
Ukraine, Nuclear Weapons, and Security Assurances at a Glance -Arms Control Association
1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances To solidify security commitments to Ukraine, the United States, Russia, and the United Kingdom signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances on December 5, 1994. A political agreement in accordance with the principles of the Helsinki Accords, the memorandum included security assurances against the threat or use of force against Ukraine’s territory or political independence. The countries promised to respect the sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine. Parallel memorandums were signed for Belarus and Kazakhstan as well. In response, Ukraine officially acceded to the NPT as a non-nuclear weapon state on December 5, 1994. That move met the final condition for ratification of START, and on the same day, the five START states-parties exchanged instruments of ratification, bringing the treaty into force.
Hence
France, seen as the spearhead of European defense, worries Russia -Le Monde
Putin's loyal foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, described as "absurd" and "delirious" accusations of Moscow wanting to attack Europe and said that Macron's comments on the possibility of Europe being protected by the French nuclear umbrella amounted to a "threat." In three years of war in Ukraine, however, the Kremlin has never ceased to wave the threat of nuclear blackmail.
Therefore
Macron seizes on international situation to return to political limelight in France — Le Monde
Macron and de Gaulle also shared "the idea of rearmament, which went hand in hand with French independence" for de Gaulle, said the historian. They were also aligned on continuity in the field of nuclear deterrence: "The idea of a nuclear shield," which de Gaulle reserved for France and Macron extends to Europe, "is the major weapon," according to de Gaulle, noted Garrigues. There is, however, one key difference between the two presidents: "Macron is a convinced European, while de Gaulle was circumspect about European integration," added the academic.
Aligning himself with De Gaulle, he seeks political advantage over the extreme right.
Macron was once again attacking his favorite adversary, Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) party, because he has regained some confidence on the national stage, after long months where he was more withdrawn
There is a European-wide shift towards the extreme right, which faces an existential threat from the East [Putin], and the West [Agent Orange] may well halt its rise.
But at what price?
A morning muse.
~A
Note: I realize foreign affairs is not a popular subject in the US, so I wrote this diary as more of an update.
[END]
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