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Resisting the Trump Regime - The Case for Optimism and Hope [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2025-03-10
Donald Trump has been president for a short seven weeks and the results have been disastrous. Our freedom and the rule of law have been tested as never before and the U.S. economy is already teetering on the brink of a recession. Trump is off to the worst start of any president in U.S. history.
Shortly before Trump took office, both the actual performance of the U.S. economy and private sector expectations were optimistic. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank Atlanta indicated that GDP growth in the first quarter was tracking close to a robust +4.0%.
Inauguration Day on January 20 is an excellent time to set down for the record the state of the country that Donald Trump was inheriting. All the ending numbers for President Joe Biden are below.
GDP growth: 4%
Inflation: 2.7%
Labor force participation: 62.5%
Unemployment rate: 4.1%
Real wage growth: 1%
Donald Trump inherited an economy that was in the words of the GOP friendly Wall Street Journal: “The envy of the world.”
You’re going to want to save this portion of the post for when Trump and his propaganda machine try to rewrite history.
Since he has taken office, Trump has disrupted the economy with his erratic policies of on/off again tariffs and the mass terminations of federal employees.
On February 1st, Trump signed an executive order implementing 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. The EO said the tariffs would take effect on February 4th;
On February 3rd, Trump suspended the tariffs on Canada and Mexico for a month in exchange for fake concessions from the two nations;
On March 4th, Trump implemented new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, and increased tariffs on Chinese goods by an additional 10%;
On March 5th, he exempted automobiles; and
On March 6th, Trump announced he was suspending the tariffs on most goods from Mexico and Canada.
Trump has promised more tariffs on lumber from Canada, and all imports from the EU, South Korea, Brazil and India.
Trump may renew all of the withdrawn tariffs against imports from Canada and Mexico on April 2. We get to do this all over again! Yikes!
Trump ran for office promising rapid and fast prices cuts beginning on day one. Trump said: “When I will win I will immediately bring down prices beginning on day one.”
Trump has already broken that promise. His tariffs or tax increases on imports will make everything more expensive. Trump cabinet members are already conceding that his polices will soon make everything cost more. According to Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi, Trump’s tariffs will cost the typical American household at least $1250 a year.
Meanwhile, Musk and his youthful computer programmers have fired approximately 200,000 federal employees with many more to come. For example, Musk is planning to fire 50% of the employees at the Social Security Administration and 80,000 employees at the Veterans Administration. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Something like 30% of federal employees are veterans. DOGE has fired more veterans than any organization in history.
Democrats need to quit saying something like well we support more efficiency in government but Musk is doing it in the wrong way. The reality is that Musk is a radical libertarian who hates government. Musk wants to destroy the parts of government that are popular and work well. He wants to destroy what’s left of the American people’s faith in government so he can privatize it and make money from it.
The biggest problem is that Trump and Musk’s policies have created tremendous economic uncertainty. Consumers and businesses are spooked because they don’t have any idea what things will cost next month and can’t plan. More from Zandi:
“Stroke of the pen risk. That’s what businesses and investors call the risk the President will, in an instant, dramatically change tariffs, DOGE cuts to government jobs and funding, and immigration policy using an executive order. Whether using an EO for these actions is legal is a question, but getting an answer will take time as deliberations wind through the courts, adding to the risk. Given this uncertainty, businesses will be increasingly reluctant to hire and invest and, at some point, will pull back and lay off workers. The economy will falter. Adding to the concern are warnings from Fed officials that they, too, have no idea where economic policy is going and implications for inflation and growth and, thus are sitting on their hands. No wonder the stock market is sliding, which is reinforcing the economy’s troubled fate. The economy was too strong before all this to be derailed quickly, but unless the Presidential pen is put away soon, the economy will come off the rails later this year.”
All of this chaos has had an impact and may send the U.S. economy into a recession. The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s GDP forecast now predicts -2.8% GDP growth in the first quarter, down from plus 4% in January. This is a stunning turn around.
Trump’s mismanagement of the economy has taken a poll on his poll numbers and the poll numbers of the GOP. According to a Reuters Ipsos poll of March 3–4, Trump had a miserly 44% approval rating with 51% disapproval. Only 31% approve of his handling of inflation and 54% disapprove.
At this stage early in their presidencies, Obama was around 63% approval and Biden was at 53% percent approval. Trump is the most unpopular new president in modern history.
Trump’s incompetence and unpopularity has dragged down the Republican party. According to a Washington Post Ipsos poll on February 18, the Democrats had a 54% to 41% lead in the race for Congress. Trump’s own pollster detected that the Democrats are leading in the House generic ballot by 5 points in the 18 swing districts that will determine control of the House in 2026.
Now some Democrats discount this optimism about 2026 because they fear Trump will cancel the election or arrest his political opponents.
I talk to a lot of Republicans both on and off line. They believe that Trump, Musk and their agenda are wildly popular with the American people. In addition, they believe the Democratic Party is moribund and will soon go the way of the Whigs. They believe that the GOP began a long electoral winning streak in 2024.
The Trump supporters are extremely cocky and over confident. They don’t believe the negative polls for Trump and the GOP. The MAGA Republicans are in for a big surprise in November 2026.
I don’t believe the U.S. Supreme Court will allow Trump to cancel elections and arrest his opponents. The Republicans on the Supreme Court are very powerful and they want to maintain that power. That’s why they won’t allow Trump to become a dictator.
If we do the work in 2026, we will win. A powerful backlash has already begun. We will win. Just not immediately.
Sources consulted:
https://x.com/Markzandi/status/1898714110952452219
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-tracker-march-8-2041623
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https://newrepublic.com/article/191841/trump-approval-rating-pollster-bad-news-warning
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