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Avoiding 50%-50% Elections [1]
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Date: 2025-03-10
Over 150 million Americans vote, yet the decisions of 1 of a 100 voters swings the Presidency. Do we want to have so much power shift every four years because of marginal changes in opinion? That merely leaves millions of voters disgruntled, disenchanted, and disconnected from their fellow Americans. Both parties are distrusted. Voters who didn’t like Trump pushed him over the top twice! The way out of this cycle of close victories and defeats is to change our perspective on what we are attempting to achieve electorally and culturally. We should work towards making the Democratic Party acceptable to 60%-70% of the country.
We are living in the consequences of being unpopular as a party. Trump’s evisceration of the Republican Party has many sources, but one of them was that so many Republican voters and all Republican leaders were unwilling to consider voting for a Democrat in any situation. So in 2016, despite only being chosen by 44% of Republican primary voters, despite personally insulting other Republican leaders, and despite being woefully unfit for public office of any kind, Trump gained the endorsements of leaders and the votes of almost all Republicans. Those that defected, tended to vote for a third party rather than Clinton. Trump’s deeds, words, and behavior forced some former Republicans out, but most found supporting Democrats to be too difficult, whether for social reasons as Adam Kinzinger has spoken about or because they distrusted and disliked Democrats more.
Being acceptable to 60%-70% of the country will stop the next demagogue.
We also want our government to do stuff. The Senate provides two barriers to Democrats passing legislation. One is that most bills require 60 votes to get onto the Senate floor which hinders both parties. Democrats have advocated for removing this requirement. It’s a possible short-term solution when Democrats control the chamber, but it increases the importance of winning at all costs and increases the risk of Republicans legislating when they control the Senate.
The second barrier is the Senate’s institutional advantage to smaller, predominately rural, and white states. Even while losing the 2020 Presidential election by 7 million votes, Trump won 25 states. Currently Republicans control the governor’s mansion and legislative chambers of 23 states (24 if you count Nebraska’s non-partisan Senate elections) and Democrats only 15. Just to get to 50 Senators, Democrats have to win 20 out of 22 seats in states with divided government or win in solid Republican territory.
Being acceptable to 60%-70% of the country will make more Senate races competitive and make it easier Republican Senators to compromise on more issues and pass more legislation (or even force them to compromise).
Aiming to be acceptable to 60%-70% of the country demands that Democratic politicians and Democratic leaning organizations communicate to potential voters and to communities outside of the current Democratic coalition. As individuals, activists, leaders, and politicians, we’ll have to listen more, be open to compromise and even accept differing opinions about some of our most closely held beliefs. The benefit of doing this, is that will reduce the reflexive opposition to Democratic policies and communication that so much of the American population has developed. When we propose something new or when we rally to protect something sacred, we’ll have a much broader number of people who will at least listen and consider, and often even agree. Moreover, these policies will last longer than those enacted through executive order or bringing in the VP to break a tie.
Being acceptable to 60%-70% of the country will make it easier to promote our ideas and entrench them in law and culture.
I assert there is a sense among many Democrats and particularly among many progressives that being acceptable to many would require giving up cherished beliefs or positions. That’s a reasonable concern. I don’t think it will require that, rather it will require being curious, seeking common ground, clarifying definitions, being okay with disagreements, and allowing people that grace to have their current beliefs and language even if you vehemently disagree with those beliefs. Doesn’t mean you accept the beliefs and support the beliefs. Doesn’t mean you avoid standing up for people negatively impacted by those beliefs. But it would mean that you aim your communication at the belief/action/idea and why you feel it is harmful/stupid/wrong/vile rather than just resorting to name calling or trying to exclude them from the party because they have violated a consensus opinion or belief.
It’s unfair. Republicans have an ideologically smaller coalition as well as a more culturally homogeneous coalition. They are almost a tribe. Combined with their current electoral college advantage and disgust with Democrats, the lack of breadth of their coalition allows them to win while pissing off more than half of Americans. For us, it’s the opposite. We have to become palatable to at least a section of the population that pissing us off. It won’t be a fun or short process, but it will leave our politics in a much better place.
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