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“Be careful what you wish for, lest it come true! ” (Aesop) [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2025-03-09
Disclaimer: This article represents my current opinions and feelings, in this very particular context where Donald Trump seems on the verge of destroying 80 years of a delicate balance. It's probably just the cathartic rambling of a Frenchman with too much inspiration but who knows...
Part1 - The sleeper must awaken
For little less than a century now, Europe has been a quaint old grandma you love to go and visit during holidays. A nice elderly lady telling stories, with a funny home full of old stuff. She yells from time to time at youngsters making to much noise or wave a broomstick to some bully terrorizing the neighborhood. All yells, but not very convincing, and most of you has never thought of imagining what she was like in her prime. When she was young and strong. When she was rich and powerful. When she was roaming the world, waging wars and bringing Death in her path. Even if you did, it would be just this: a story of a time long past, because an old lady can never regain her youth. Or... can she? What if the old lady was not an old lady but rather a pack of sleeping wolves?
A short history of war and (eventually) peace
Eighty whole years of relative peace and most of the World seems to have forgotten everything about Europe warmongering era, an era that lasted... forever. In fact the whole European history is composed of wars, alliances to make war, peace to have more troops to wage another war, or scientific discoveries to create new weapons to win wars. And when European nations were not fighting each other, they were traveling to wage wars all around the rest of the world to increase the size of their empire, and increase their capacity to wage war. In short, learning History in Europe is learning about battles, wars, alliances, betrayals, conquests and more wars.
Two consecutive World Wars will change this. Modern Weaponry will be the demise of powerful empires, reducing dramatically their manpower and ruining them by the sheer level of destruction involved. But these wars will also allow the rise of a newcomer. Indeed, the two world wars will allow the USA to increase its industrial power, safely away from the destruction of the old continent and to gain incredible wealth though trade and sheer size.
European empires dwindled and died and Europe went to sleep, like old ladies mumbling about their past glory. Or more exactly, like wounded and tired wolves, lying down, licking their wounds, tired of fighting. They go into a slumber, seeing the young American pup becoming bigger and meaner, happy to let him take care of things and taking it upon himself to be the powerful leader protecting everyone. They are tired of blood and fighting, they just want peace and quiet, just growling weakly from time to time, to let people know they're still there.
The end of an era... or the continuation of what once was
And then something happens in this quiet and idyllic European World. Putin has risen. He starts invading part of countries under cover of protecting minorities. The old wolves raised an eyebrow, but nothing more. And then the unthinkable happened. Russia invaded Ukraine. At first it was seen as a "punitive expedition" that would be fast and nearly bloodless, as usual. But the unexpected happens again: Ukraine doesn't yield. They fight. Bravely. And they do the impossible: they stop a supposedly all-powerful army. And the old wolves raise their head. It reminded them who they once were. And they stand up and help, more and more.
Europe suddenly realized that they didn't have enough weaponry stocks, that they couldn't produce ammunition and equipment fast enough.
And USA is failing them. The World Power they thought will always be there to police the world, so that they can sleep, rest and enjoy the peace they never had before. It failed them. Donald Trump is proving to them that they cannot trust it, that they cannot rely on it, that they are on their own, again, for the first time in decades.
Donald Trump says Europe is not giving enough, that they don't spend enough for NATO, that they should increase they military expenses. And Donald Trump and his minions insult them, spit at them, spit at Ukraine. And Donald Trump decides to stop helping, to stop protecting the world. And Donald Trump decides to side with the aggressor, their enemy.
Their bleary eyes are now fully open, the old wolves are stretching.
Donald Trump wished Europe to increase their military spending? They will. Dramatically. Donald Trump wished the war to end. They could make it so. Their way. Donald Trump wishes USA to stop being the policeman of the world? They could be. And more.
Part2 - The sleeper awakes
All over Europe, opinions and politics are changing. The once pacifist and conciliatory European governments are now pushing for increasing their military expenses and are expressing that a lasting peace can only be obtained by strength.
Beyond the recent presentation of a 800 billions euros plan to strengthen Europe's defense industry and provide 'immediate' military support to Ukraine, a simple look at the largest European countries recent announcements is enough to understand the current trend.
Poland: the return of the winged hussars
With close to 5% of their GDP dedicated to military expenses, Poland is on an all-out arm-race, pulling out from the international conventions banning anti-personnel mines and cluster munitions and planning to increase its military forces from 200,000 to 500,000. This is on top of their recent weaponry shopping: Abrams tanks, Patriot missile defense systems and F-35 jet fighters from the U.S. as well as K2 Black Panther main battle tanks, K9A1 Thunder howitzers or Homar-Krocket systems. The recent events caused Poland to reconsider their dependence to US systems and the utility of US bases on their home ground. The cherry on top of the cake is that Poland is negotiating with France to benefit from its nuclear umbrella and is even toying with the idea to get its own nuclear deterrent.
France is preparing for war
France has recently multiplied the declarations of support toward Ukraine and decided to increase its military spending. The speech of french senator Claude Mahuret against Donald Trump’s politics was strong enough to become viral on internet. Despite a difficult budget situation, France is considering increasing its military expenses from 2% to 3.5% of their GDP, possibly by means of a National Loan to finance part of it. Several voices have even started to consider using the totality of the frozen Russian assets to finance help to Ukraine. To answer the latest Donald Trump controversial decisions concerning Ukraine, France decided to share its satellite intelligence with Ukraine and started negotiations on extending France's nuclear umbrella to the rest of Europe. A recent survey among french youngsters (18 to 25 years old) was even more surprising. Contrary to popular belief about youth selfishness, 57% of them were ready to enroll voluntarily in case of a conflict and 41% declared being ready to die for their country and democracy.
Germany is abandoning pacifism
Following the trauma of WWII, Germany had been one of the most pacifist country in Europe. Today, nevertheless, this once-opponent to European defense, obsessed with budget rigor is now preparing actively for war. Friedrich Mertz, the new Chancellor, in a recent speech generated great surprise by declaring that the necessary defense spending above 1% of GDP should be exempt from debt brake or “Schuldenbremse” restrictions (limiting the budget deficit to 0.35% of GDP), with no upper limit. He declared that he will do “whatever it takes” to improve defense, proposing a special €500bn fund to repair Germany's dilapidated infrastructure. He also decided to allow Taurus missiles to be sent to Ukraine, a long-awaited change to Germany's policy on the matter. In another shift in policy, Mertz has been advocating for a focus on European weapon suppliers and industry, supporting independence from US weapon systems.
UK is drifting away from the USA
As one of the oldest and more reliable Ukraine supporter, UK has been recently under pressure by the USA to stop its intelligence sharing with Ukraine, USA using the “five eyes” intelligence alliance status as a lever. As a result, UK are considering creating a “four eyes” alliance without the US. Even the reliability of its nuclear deterrent is under scrutiny, several voices claiming that USA could render it ineffective. Despite this difficult context, UK government doesn't flinch, and announces an increase of military budget to 2.5% or even 3% of GDP. Usually seen as a strong US ally, apart from Europe, especially since the Brexit and even referred to as the “51th state”, the UK is now drifting back to the old continent.
The crisis that could change everything?
The other European countries are also preparing actively for war. On the northern borders of Europe, Finland army forces are ready, and strong, ready to face any Russian threat.
Europe is a complex conglomerate of fiercely independent countries, each with its own language and deep cultural differences. European Union is already a miracle in itself. But Putin and Trump have succeeded were no man has succeeded before. The European countries are now all headed together toward a single direction: preparing for war. And the idea of common European defense is not taboo anymore. The next step would be the establishment of a European Federation, as envisioned by Robert Schumann, founder of the European community in 1950.
Europe is awakening. The wolves are slowly standing up, shaking their dusty fur, flexing their stiff muscles. Their teeth are sharp again, their hunger has returned. And they found a common enemy.
Part3 - The sleeper has awaken
A war to be won
Now that USA is totally out of the equation, the question is: can Europe do anything against Russia? Well, let the numbers speak.
For three years now we have been told time and again that Russia with 147 millions inhabitants, will eventually prevail against Ukraine with its 37 millions inhabitants. But the intervention of Europe in this conflict would change everything.
Europe population is above 500 millions inhabitants, with more than a million soldiers, most of them trained professionals, perfectly armed and equipped. With more than 2100 modern fighter planes and more than 140 main warships; a mobilized Europe waging war would rule the seas and obtain complete air supremacy. Russia would be inevitably dwarfed, even prior to any potential military increase.
Comparing economy, Europe GDP is approaching 21,000 Billions dollars against the meager 2,000 billions of Russia. Economically speaking, Europe is ten time more powerful than Russia.
The only way Russia could wriggle out of a humiliating defeat would be to use nuclear weapons, but would they? Europe is also a nuclear power through France and UK. Our nukes may be far less numerous but who care about the numbers? Our nukes are modern and reliable and can reach their target with deadly accuracy. Russians nukes are... well, they are nukes, the rest is uncertain at best. Launching a nuclear attack would mean a clear and certain destruction of Russia.
A unified Europe joining the war in Ukraine with the totality of its military power would be an incredible game changer that would sound the death knell for Russia's special military operation. And a victory in Ukraine would propel Europe as a major player, feared and respected. And USA's influence would proportionally decrease.
A story yet to be told
Europe would then become a huge power... militarily powerful and united for the first time in its history. We are not talking hungry wolves roaming the land, fighting each other when crossing paths, forming short-lived alliances from time to time. We are talking now about a united pack of big, ferocious wolves. Old, mean, experienced, hunting and fighting together as one.
Imagine a unified Europe, including Ukraine, with nuclear power and powerful modern army forces. Think about it... for the first time in a century, Europe would have the power to force its will on the world. Europe would be a Superpower, both economically and militarily.
US power would decline... fast. In fact, it has already started its decline. USA has lost the trust of its allies. It has lost the trust of its economics partners. It has lost the trust of its diplomatic partners. By starting a trade war on everyone at the same time, Donald Trump is greatly jeopardizing the US economy. And by blackmailing and threatening economical and military retaliation, he is encouraging everyone to distance themselves from American products, equipment and contracts. American industry will suffer, especially the military industry.
By investing massively, Europe could grab a lot of the market the US are losing. And the defiance toward the dollar will push everyone to look for a safer currency. Someone said “Euro”? A real possibility in this scenario would be Euro replacing Dollar as the base trade currency. If this was to happen, it would be the end of USA's power as we know it.
The question then is what will Europe do with all this power. Will the wolves go on a rampage, going back to what they once were? Or will they keep their head and rule with the wisdom of age? Only time will tell.
Conclusion: careful what you wish for...
By stopping help and intelligence to Ukraine and spitting on Europe, Donald Trump forced our hand. He forced Europe to wake up. He thought it was a great idea to throw rocks at sleeping wolves.
Donald Trump wished Europe to increase their military spending. Donald Trump wished Europe to stop relying on USA. Donald Trump wished USA to stop being the policeman of the world.
Be careful what you wish for, lest it come true...
[END]
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