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Billionaires Do Better Under Democrats - But Still Vote Republican Because TAXES [1]
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Date: 2025-03-08
On Democracy substack this morning, Adam Bonica, political science professor at Stanford, asks a simple but critical question: What's the Matter with Billionaires?
As markets reel from the latest Trump-induced crisis—escalating tariff threats sending shockwaves through global supply chains and stock prices—it’s worth asking: Why do America's wealthiest individuals continue to support politicians who appear to work against their economic interests?
As can be seen from the chart above (which Bonica created from Forbes data), the ultra-rich accumulate more wealth when a Democrat is in the Oval Office than when a Republican is, a consistent pattern dating back at least 40 years.
I analyzed over 40 years of Forbes 400 data and found a striking pattern: billionaire wealth grows significantly faster under Democratic administrations (+57.1% average growth) compared to Republican ones (+16.5%).
The reason, Bonita explains, is that billionaires accumulate wealth through investments, not through salaries (which is how it’s almost always done), and the markets do better under Democrats:
The explanation is straightforward. Billionaire fortunes rise and fall with markets, not salaries. The ultra-wealthy build wealth primarily through asset appreciation—stocks, real estate, intellectual property—rather than traditional income. When markets thrive, as they historically have under Democratic administrations, billionaire wealth multiplies accordingly.
So why do they support Republicans? Simple: taxes. The rich hate paying taxes — even though they still accumulate more money with higher Democratic taxes than with lower Republican ones, because Democatic economic policies are so much better overall. (Trump’s tariff flip-flops are only the most egregious example of how Republicans hurt investments.)
This visceral reaction wasn't about economic principles or market efficiency—it was naked self-interest. Billionaires have built elaborate financial structures that allow them to accumulate vast wealth while paying virtually no taxes.
Republican tax policies also allow billionaires to pass on more of their fortunes to their heirs, thus building financial dynasties that further take over the country so they can run it in their own interest.
The most damning reality: billionaires who've reaped unprecedented wealth from our economic system are actively undermining it to avoid contributing their fair share. This isn't just about tax fairness—it's about the viability of democracy itself when wealth translates so directly into political power.
But that is long-term destruction of our democracy. Short-term, the intense blinding hatred of paying their fair share of taxes is leading us more quickly to ruin.
What's most alarming about this trend is how it reveals the complete decoupling of billionaire interests from general economic prosperity. The ultra-wealthy appear willing to sacrifice overall economic health, market stability, and general prosperity to protect their privileged position. This isn’t rational economic behavior in the traditional sense—it’s a calculated decision by a rising oligarchic class that prioritizes tax avoidance and wealth preservation above all else. [emphasis added]
This has been the pattern throughout American history, though earlier generations of robber barons at least went through the motions of wanting to support the general public; think of Carnegie Hall, for example, or Vanderbilt University. Today’s generation, whether hopped up on ketamine or adderall, doesn’t even care about a fig leaf; it’s all naked greed, with no sense of decency (especially not “at long last”).
Some of this, I think, is the consequence of the way our modern technological society fosters the sudden accumulation of great wealth. Whereas the Carnegies and the Vanderbilts had to put in lots of muscle and sweat to gradually build their empires, today’s tech billionaires only have to think their way to great and sudden wealth. They can pretend they did it all by themselves, ignoring the country’s infrastructure that helped them along — and that is paid for and maintained by taxes.
Their unofficial complaint amounts to: “I did it all by myself, and if you can’t do it, it’s just because you’re lazy, or stupid (or not a White male). Why should I pay to support you when you obviously don’t deserve it???”
The nobility of the ancien regime in France had a similar attitude, and look what happened to them.
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