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We’re Losing We haven’t Lost [1]
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Date: 2025-03-07
That title got your attention didn’t it? I couldn’t resist the twist on the Simon Rosenberg election mantra.
So what is my point here? Well I’d love to frame things as positive, however I don’t think we can at this moment. What I can do is maybe still say something productive AND empowering even if not positive.
Anyone familiar with my over arching theory of the loss in November is that though there were multiple factors the overwhelming one was a terrible misread by the campaign of where they were. Perhaps they still would have failed to win regardless but I sincerely doubt it-at least not the Campaign AND the House. The house was super close, the Pennsylvania senate seat was super close and both, though there was clear concern near the end of the race, didn’t have the urgency early in the campaign they should have and would have I contend if a more accurate picture was known.
Ok so what does that have to do with today? Well knowing exactly where we are is critical and necessary and is NOT defeatist because zeroing in to precisely where we are, knowing the landscape reveals the opportunities and weaknesses—and these do exist.
It matters for example whether Trump is being played like a fiddle by Musk or he is genuinely supportive of the direction he is going. It matters whether the trigger in the Oval Office fiasco was Vance initiated or Trump planned it or at least went along with the plan ahead of time. It matters to what extent RFK and Patel see their portfolios as their own fiefdom rather than as extensions of Trump.
Probably you can see where this is going. When we hear Trump is weak—we should believe it. Because his OWN ALLIES believe he is weak and are manipulating and scheming behind his back as we speak.
And this is a consolidation of power period—if anything they should be more lockstep than they are at this point. Musk has clearly acted independently getting tacit approval in retrospect from Trump and Trump has plausible deniability but also increasing frustrations with Musk. It’s an interesting dynamic there and an alliance of convenience only.
OPM is being ignored by several agencies, so is Musk. OPM has pulled back on court order(s) others have not. These are competing powers in a coalition that knows it won’t hold together and each has a different assessment of their likelihood for success, their exposure, and their end goals.
Coming back to the title. Right now we are losing, which is to say every day we have less power, less institutional strength.
But we haven’t lost yet. I think the article “The Coup has failed” is wrong in the literal description of its title but in my humble opinion the author is on to something.
The oligarchs were expecting to have already won everything at this point. It’s not going to plan—at least not according to the plan cooked up after they knew they would have the House.
Anytime they comply with a court order or change a policy which would have given them more power is a battle we have won—especially now with their maximalist aims they need to hold onto everything. So it is with the OPM changes, the somewhat court compliance, tariff back and forth, the letting money flow to Pennsylvania recently. They are flooding the zone but we crashing them with as many waves back—and they are also drinking from the firehose to really stretch metaphors here.
Those are real losses for them and genuine hindrances to their ability to execute their strategy. They are struggling with managing it all. They don’t even have enough lawyers to help fight the lawsuits they should have expected would come.
All of these are reductions in power and erosion of the mirage of absolute superiority they want to project.
But right now the executive branch is breaking the law every day with limited consequences, the legislative branch is going along. So we are still not winning and more damage is done every day.
We aren’t losing every battle and we aren’t on a trajectory where we can’t win—not yet.
Where we are though with these wins, is we are in a place where we can see what works—at least for now. And now is all we can know for sure.
Regardless of the “Democrat plant” discussions and the tone deafness of the reps, I think the town hall backlash and congress calls are making a difference. It is likely a mistake to think that is enough but the correlation is strong that this is part of the story. This should be at least slightly heartening.
The organizational and state attorney lawsuits are also making an impact. The non compliance is terrifying but there are places where the administration gives up—a win is a win. And every win, every cave weakens them a little more. Every tied up court case also weakens them. They think they are using court slowness against us and to some extent they are right. But it also works the other way, political capital depreciates quickly, Musk and congress know they are on thin ice, their authoritarian dreams are just within reach but so are the consequences if they fail. The more time that passes where they haven’t sufficiently succeeded the more they will get nervous.
Further the other way time works against them is the damage they are causing and the public notice of this gets time to emerge and the rage coalesce.
Musk is both the number 1 threat and most vulnerable—maybe worth its own diary. He is incredibly rich but I think people forget how much of that wealth is tied up in over inflated assets. Tesla is crashing so much because it was already mostly fluff. He’s lost incredible amounts at Twitter and Bluesky will finish it off eventually—assuming Trump doesn’t step in with something. Musk for all the criticisms has high valued companies because people thought he was highly competent. That illusion has been absolutely shattered by his DOGE actions and will continue to be reflected in his companies. (Unless he gets such high gov’t subsidies it can counter these impacts.) So these companies, which were already over valued because Musk is a great marketer, had way more correction space than most.
Finally as hinted before, the fiefdoms to my mind are real, Trump is viewed as weak in the coalition, probably they see his mental and health decline even more than we do in public—and it’s pretty clear in public. Each one of those is an eager opportunist who can be exploited, who is already in conflict and needs just a nudge here and there to be in conflict with other administration officials, Musk, or Trump.
We need to continue and to ratchet the pressure, keeping in mind where the weaknesses are, keeping a pulse on what is working including trying things that may not work—we won’t always know ahead of time. Though we’re are still in a terrifying position, the evidence so far suggests we can maybe stymie and change this coup’s trajectory.
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