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Hypothesis: tariffs do not affect the cost of goods to the US consumer [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2025-03-04
Recall that candidate Trump frequently said that tariffs do not raise the cost of goods because the exporters will lower the prices of their goods. We can check this hypothesis out in two easy steps.
The scientific method
First, keep a checkout slip from your grocery store from 3/4/25 or within the last few days. Second, wait one or more weeks, and compare the cost of items on the latter slips to the earlier list. There are two possible outcomes. Situation one: the price of the items is the same or within 2.5%. Situation two: the price of the items is greater than 2.5%. The 2.5% represents the exiting rate of inflation in the US and including it in the calculation take the expected increase into account.
Analysis
Situation One: prices did not exceed expected inflation, so tariffs had no effect.
Situation Two: prices are greater than expected inflation, so tariffs had an effect.
Discussion
If results show Situation One matches the evidence, tariffs have no effect, and you should also check to see if gravity still works.
If results show Situation Two matches the evidence, tariffs do in fact have an impact on the cost of goods and inflation.
If the evidence shows that tariffs effect inflation and the Trump cult members deny that could possibly be the case. The phrase "who are you going to believe, me or your lying eyes" comes to mind as well as the apparent separation from reality of the cult members.
Addendum
Some may find this sciency stuff too much to take, but sometimes reality prevails and indicates the need to return to earth one, where the rest of us live.
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[1] Url:
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