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Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Things Falling Apart [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2025-03-04
We begin today with Paul Krugman writing at his self-named Substack that Europe is fully capable of rising to the occasion and defend Ukraine.
Does Europe have the resources to save Ukraine? Of course it does. The European Union and the UK combined have ten times Russia’s GDP. European aid to Ukraine has long exceeded US aid, and Europe could easily replace America’s share. In the early stages of the war, the US provided the bulk of the military aid, but even that gap has greatly narrowed: Can Europe step up fast enough? There are, as I understand it, some important weapons systems America may stop supplying that Europe can’t quickly replace. But as Phillips O’Brien has pointed out, we’ve been hearing predictions of Ukraine’s imminent collapse for at least a year, when the reality is that Russia has achieved only minor and meaningless territorial gains at immense cost in men and materiel… [...] So it really comes down to political will. [...] If Trump nonetheless tries to pressure Europe into abandoning Ukraine, say by imposing tariffs on European goods (which seems to be his only tactic), someone will have to tell him, “Sir, you don’t have the cards.” The EU exports less than 3 percent of its GDP to the United States. And there’s already a public backlash against even the threat of tariffs, as well as the absence of any visible effort on Trump’s part to make good on his campaign promises to bring down grocery prices. In short, Europe shouldn’t be afraid of Donald Trump. If it wants to save democracy in Ukraine, it can.
Nice reminder about Europe defending a fledging Portuguese democracy after the overthrow of President António de Oliveira Salazar in 1974.
Frank Gardner of BBC News notes that Europe defending Ukraine may be easier said than done.
First, can Europe's depleted armies and half-empty arsenals muster anything approaching a substantial deterrent force to deploy to Ukraine? What nations, other than the UK and France, will be willing to send forces into such an uncertain scenario given the doubts over US support? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said it would need an international force of up to 200,000 troops to sustain a ceasefire along the 600 mile (960km) line of contact between the two opposing armies, Russia and Ukraine. Although that figure is wildly optimistic, the Ukrainian leader is correct in assessing just how many would be needed to act as a sufficient deterrent to any future Russian incursions. In reality, Europe will struggle to come up with even a third of that number, such is the effect of decades of running down its militaries, years after the post-Cold War peace dividend should have ended.
Keith Bradsher of The New York Times examines the retaliatory tariffs placed by China on American products after the U.S. placed yet more tariffs on Chinese imports yesterday.
China’s Ministry of Finance put tariffs of 15 percent on imports of American chicken, wheat, corn and cotton and 10 percent tariffs on other foods, ranging from soybeans to dairy products. In addition, the Ministry of Commerce said 15 U.S. companies would no longer be allowed to buy products from China except with special permission, including Skydio, which is the largest American maker of drones and a supplier to the U.S. military and emergency services. [...] China’ tariffs in 2018 also had less of a political impact in the United States than Beijing’s leaders had hoped they would. Three of the top soybean-exporting states held elections for Senate seats in November 2018, but there was little evidence that voters held the Chinese action against Mr. Trump or the Republican Party. All three states saw Democratic senators replaced with Republicans that year, as social issues proved more compelling for many voters than trade disputes. Yet China has potential trade weapons that go far beyond tariffs on food. In early February, Beijing implemented restrictions on exports to the United States of certain critical minerals, which are used in the production of some semiconductors and other technology products. Blocking key materials from reaching the United States, a tactic known as supply chain warfare, carries considerable risks for China. Beijing is already struggling to attract foreign investment. China’s cabinet has publicly shifted its goal this winter from trying to lure more foreign investment to stabilizing it. China’s leaders have also stated that attempting to bolster the country’s domestic economy, weighed down by the fallout of a devastating real estate slowdown, is a priority.
Emily Mullen and Zoë Schiffer of WIRED reports that a $1 spending limit(!) imposed on government-issued credit cards is affecting multiple agencies.
At the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, scientists aren’t able to order equipment used to repair ships and radars. At the Food and Drug Administration, laboratories are experiencing delays in ordering basic supplies. At the National Park Service, employees are canceling trips to oversee crucial maintenance work. And at the Department of Agriculture and the Federal Aviation Administration, employees worry that mission-critical projects could be stalled. In many cases, employees are already unable to carry out the basic functions of their job. A researcher at the National Institutes of Health who tests new vaccines and treatments in rodents says he has had to put experiments on hold; his lab is not able to get certain necessary materials, such as antibodies, which are needed to assess immune response. “We have animals here that are aging that will pretty soon be too old to work with,” says the researcher, who requested anonymity as they aren’t authorized to speak publicly about the agency. Young mice and rats that are 6 to 8 weeks old are typically used for drug and vaccine studies, but some of the animals in their lab have now aged out of that window and may have to be euthanized. [...] The credit card program allows federal workers to bypass the typical procurement process required to buy goods and services. A 2002 report from the Department of Commerce said that, “by avoiding the formal procurement process, GSA estimates the annual savings to be $1.2 billion.” It also enables federal employees to avoid paying sales tax on expenses that the government is exempt from.
Rex Huppke of USA Today denounces Elon Musk’s comments that Social Security is a “Ponzi scheme”
But make no mistake where this is all heading. The Department of Government Efficiency created by President Donald Trump and allegedly led by Musk has already pushed the Social Security Administration to announce a plan to cut more than 12% of its staff – roughly 7,000 people. That prompted former Social Security Administration Commissioner Martin O’Malley to warn on CNBC that “people should start saving now” and: “Ultimately, you’re going to see the system collapse and an interruption of benefits. I believe you will see that within the next 30 to 90 days.” [...] You know who doesn’t care? The absurd rich guy who went on Joe Rogan’s bro-centric podcast the other day and said: “Social Security is the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time.” [...] Social Security is one of the country’s most popular and successful federal programs, and its pay-as-you-go arrangement is not a deceptive scam – it’s how the system was built to work.
Economist Stephanie Kelton writes for her Substack “The Lens” a fairly sophisticated analysis of the real reasons that Social Security is “running out of money.”
If we were having an honest debate, we would acknowledge that Social Security can run out of statutory headroom to pay full scheduled benefits, but the money can always be made available. Alas, we’ve become trapped in an eternal tug-of-war over the program’s “solvency,” not unlike two desperate souls fighting over rocks in Dante’s Fourth Circle of Hell. Everyone just accepts that the program is “running out of money,” so there’s a never-ending battle over the best way to shore up the program’s finances. It’s not the debate I want to have, but it’s the only one that gets any serious consideration. So it’s worth understanding how the Social Security Administration (SSA) determines how much runway is left before the program “runs out of money.” It’s actually a pretty big undertaking, and it requires the Trustees of the SSA to make a wide array of economic and demographic assumptions in order to project how much money the program will take in—and pay out—in future years...
Stephen Marche of The Atlantic speculates on the significance of the tacky shoe salesman’s takeover of the Kennedy Center.
The takeover of the Kennedy Center may seem like an afterthought in the furious drama of President Donald Trump’s first month in office. The abandonment of the transatlantic alliance, proposals to annex territory on multiple continents, the evisceration of national institutions, and overt claims to kingship are such eye-popping departures from precedent that the leadership of a somewhat stuffy, self-consciously elite performing-arts venue seems negligible by comparison. But Trump’s peculiar preoccupation with the Kennedy Center is symptomatic of a profound change in the nature of American power since his inauguration: America is undergoing a cultural revolution. “This is going to be great television,” Trump said at the end of Friday’s stormy session with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. It may as well be the motto of his administration. [...] The Trump administration has been consistent in its veneration of show business, if in nothing else. The president has put a WWE executive in charge of education, made a Fox News talking head his secretary of defense, installed a celebrity conspiracy theorist to lead the National Institutes of Health, handed control of Medicare to a TV doctor, and appointed a right-wing podcaster as deputy director of the FBI. Elon Musk is running government reform because he can live-post it. Dr. Phil accompanies ICE on raids. Trump’s Cabinet picks resemble the cast of a reality-television show by design: Trump understands, by instinct and through experience, that the line between entertainment and power in American life has effectively dissolved. In his farewell address, President Joe Biden described the incoming administration as an oligarchy. He was mistaken. It is rule by performers: a “histriocracy.” Anyone who wants to understand what is happening in American politics needs to understand it on those terms.
Former President Joe Biden was not mistaken in calling the incoming administration an oligarchy. Nor is Mr. Marche mistaken in saying that America is now under a “rule by performers” regime. Both terms more than adequately describe this country nowadays. One term does not cancel the other out.
Matthew Ward Aigus of Deutsche Welle gives us an update on the mysterious disease outbreak taking place in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
More than 1,000 cases have been reported across the DR Congo's Equateur province and 141 cases of a disease have been reported in Basankusu's health zone. A separate outbreak in early February consisted of 158 cases and 58 deaths. In January, Bolamba village reported 12 cases and eight deaths. [...] Early lab tests ruled out Ebola and Marburg disease. Half of those tested have tested positive for malaria. "We're not really satisfied with the sampling, so we've sent two WHO epidemiologists up there," Margaret Harris, a WHO spokesperson, told DW News. "They're up there now and they're overseeing the sampling and getting them back to the laboratories in [DR Congo's capital] Kinshasa." Further testing is being undertaken for meningitis and potential toxic contamination. WHO emergencies director Mike Ryan, along with local health authorities, favor the latter as a cause. "It would appear that we have some kind of poisoning event," Ryan told reporters.
Zi Yang writes for The Diplomat about the opportunities for China in the diplomatic realm given the American lack of diplomatic couth.
Just three months ago, the idea that China could appear as a more rational actor than the United States on the world stage seemed improbable. Since the beginning of the Trump administration, China maintained its composure and observed the U.S. president dealing one self-inflicted wound after another to the United States’ global standing. During the February 24 United Nations vote to condemn Russian aggression, China abstained, while the U.S. voted alongside Russia against the popular global consensus that favored Ukraine. Compared to the U.S. pressure tactics to corner Ukraine into submitting to an unfavorable ceasefire and its support for Russia’s demands, China’s 2023and 2024 peace plans that called for de-escalation and a negotiated solution to the conflict no longer appear strictly pro-Russia. Moreover, in comparison to the volatility of Trump, China’s Xi Jinping seldom exhibits rudeness when receiving foreign dignitaries. Following Zhou Enlai’s philosophy of “diplomacy has no minor issues” (外交无小事), Xi consistently treats counterparts with courtesy and professionalism. While China’s foreign policy is far from perfect, its interactions with the world are markedly more predictable and relatively rational than Trump’s temperamental decision-making. [...] The White House confrontation between Zelenskyy and Trump is a watershed in the reversal of U.S. foreign policy and put U.S. vulnerabilities on full display. Reflecting Trump’s personality, the U.S. government now appears chaotic, insolent, vindictive, and strategically confused. It is no longer interested in defending the post-World War II world order and has instead aligned itself with the revisionist ambitions of Russia, which seeks to regain control of not just Ukraine, but all former Soviet states. The impending global tumult will heighten demands for stability and reliable leadership. In this vacuum, more nations may look to China to fill the role that the United States once played – an unthinkable outcome just a few months ago.
Zhou Enlai...interesting guy…
Try to have the best possible day everyone!
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