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A Doorbeller's Guide to the Economic Moment [1]

['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']

Date: 2025-03-01

Outrage and the outrageous is the currency of the realm in the present Trump kleptocracy. Repudiating civil rights, slashing government services, ignoring the rule of law, betraying Ukraine in favor of a war criminal, hijacking the justice department for revenge, and of course, rule by the rich — half the cabinet are from the super-rich 0.1%.

Of all this, a key vulnerability of the Trump coup is the economy. Even ahead of the betrayal of Ukraine and servile appeasement of Putin, it is the economy. Why? Because:

Trump is crashing the economy by corruption and incompetence,

The economic fortunes of a household trump all other considerations, and

The practical person with no patience for politics — the non-voter who put Trump in power — does not abide the chaos and instability that is part and parcel of Trump’s takeover.

On the first point, economic data and just looking out the window indicates the downturn is well underway, steep and unlikely to be reversed. Biden had the economy humming six weeks ago. Trump halted as much as he could and is trying to reverse the elements of the Infrastructure plan; President Musk has fired tens of thousands and stopped grants for that many more; Trump is continuously threatening tariffs and deportation, and taking Greenland or setting up Gaza strip clubs. Crazy and disorienting comes Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and all the other days.

The engines of the economy — business investment and household consumption — depend on stability. When there is none, like now, the prospects for anything other than deep trouble are slim. But the data verifying the downturn is just now coming in. (I post some articles on my BlueSky account: [email protected].) So it would be easy to get out over one’s skis on the doorstep. Or would it?

Consumer confidence is a statistic, but it is also apt to be in the expression of the person looking at you through the screen door. By now that person has heard bad news, either personally or online. USAID got gouged and thousands of people will die. Social Security and VA staff have been cut almost randomly. Research grants of every description and even NOAA have been lopped off with Musk’s chainsaw. There’s lots more, but it could simply be the price of eggs. No good news. All bad news.

Before we consider the PP/pp (Practical person with no patience for politics) in more detail, let us speak to the MAGA or MAGA adjacent voter.

Sorry, MAGA, you got betrayed just as bad as the people of Ukraine. Trump’s trashing regulations and the rule of law just means you get to take your orders directly from the rich. [I’m not sure MAGA saw that coming.] Be absolutely sure that the upcoming period of incompetence and corruption will be no better than Trump’s bungling of Covid in Trump 1.0. And MAGA will bear the brunt. The first Trump circus, saw hundreds of thousands of needless deaths and an economic collapse that did not need to be a quarter of what it was. Trump 2.0 will see more people dying unnecessarily (aside from those who depended on USAID), and most of those will likely be anti-science nuts in MAGA, led by RFK Jr.

Sorry, MAGA, there will be no mass deportation.

Trump can’t even build a wall and deportation is 10x more difficult,

Mass deportation would lead directly to higher grocery prices, since it is the farm workers being deported, and

The only thing MAGA hates more than people of color is higher grocery prices — inflation — so Trump will choose to renege on deportation.

Unfortunately, the regime of terror that is the made-for-TV Potemkin deportation so far will discourage workers, and you’ll probably get big inflation anyway.

The Practical Person with No Patience for Politics

Enough of the MAGA voter. What if a self-righteous non-voter answers the door? This is, in my view, the person we need to reach. Although this is the same person who effectively voted in this quasi-feudal kleptocracy by not voting at all, we cannot bear a grudge. We must extend understanding. This is the citizen who is our natural ally. This is the anti-chaos voter.

The PP/pp voter is likely to be naturally conservative, and wishes government would just stay out of his or her business. It is up to us to make the point that stable, rule of law common sense is no longer the default position. Republicans are no longer the Rotary conservatives. With MAGA, the GOP is now the party of chaos. The business-friendly Mitt Romney type is gone. It’s crazies and the wimps they intimidate all the way down. You want proof, look at the rubber stamping of a cabinet made up of the fringiest of the fringe.

At this writing, it is not clear whether the Republican rank and file will line up and bend over for Putin in the manner of the Donald or not. But even if the GOP breaks away from the Kremlin, serious damage is already done. If they don’t, it’s a whole ‘nother level of American decline that’s in store. (Recognize that Canada has a larger economy than Russia. Six weeks ago they were our strongest ally. Today it is Russia? Sorry, you knew that.)

Again, this practical citizen who eschews politics is ripe for becoming a one-issue voter, the issue being stability. This person should be open the argument that Democrats can govern, because it has been Democrats who have cleaned up the economic mess after the last three GOP presidencies, with the last two being historically severe: the Great Financial Crisis and the Covid Collapse. Objectively, every statistic favors a Democratic president and Democratic Congress. The only truly remarkable thing about Republicans is how they — and Trump in particular — convinced America they knew what they were doing on the economy. They do not. At all.

This practical non-voter probably doesn’t want to hear from you, but NEEDS to confront reality: a return to stability is possible only by rejecting the quasi-feudal kleptocracy now being installed for the benefit of the rich and super-rich. That should be worth a trip to the polling booth every two years.

Current State of Play

As I said at the outset, the data is just now coming in, and economists have been relatively shy so far. For some reason they cannot see Musk firing people and understand that there are now new unemployed. They must wait for the spreadsheet from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

To my mind, there is little downside to being as explicit and colorful as possible about the impending (indeed, already in progress) economic downturn. It is a situation where for once fear pushes people in the right direction. A downturn is already widely anticipated. Any mistake, such as the crash being only half as bad as expected, will be forgotten for the fact that there was one at all. Trump based his election on stopping inflation and being good for the economy. MAGA is expecting that. The desperate speed of Trump’s crazy so far indicates he knows that the balloon of his political capital is nearly flat.

It is incumbent for each actor — politician, doorbeller, crank on Kos — to appreciate how serious this vulnerability of the economy is for Trump. Ukraine is a close second, but the economy is first. We should accentuate this it by highlighting the crash every step down. We must make the case, and it’s easy to make. The Democratic alternative was stability and growth. Because it was. Biden engineered the most successful economic recovery in modern history. It’s a damned shame it is going to waste.

Let me say again, there is little downside to being loud. One, the crash is virtually certain and there will be a big I-told-you-so premium. Two, it amplifies the fact that Democratic Party holds the receipts on the economy. Three, early and vigorous messaging can frustrate the propaganda from the other side that is sure to rise to meet any actual facts. (Remember the propaganda coup in the promotion of the recession of 2022, where Fox convinced more than a few that a recession was coming, that it had hit and had gone, depite the fact that there was no recession in 2022.)

There is a recession in 2025. Let’s call it the Trump Incompetence and Corruption Crash. People will feel it and will likely wake up because of it. Let’s be ready to talk them down, back into reality. It is a very big opportunity.

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