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Red states discover they are about to lose a lot of federal payroll dollars [1]
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Date: 2025-02-28
"People reject what they do not understand because it makes them feel small. They would rather believe in some other reality, even if it is only an illusion, so long as it makes them feel bigger" ― Suzy Kassem
MAGAs are about to discover where the federal jobs are
MAGA is tumescent at the thought of DOGE blowing up 1,000s of federal jobs. You can imagine the thought process. "Good riddance to all those lazy, DEI-hire, shiftless bastards living off my hard-earned tax dollars." Further, if you were to ask the average MAGA where those federal employees work, they would say DC and the blue states.
It doesn't seem to occur to them that the federal worker in their family, down the street, or on their bowling team could lose their job, especially as federal employment rates are higher in MAGA states.
If DOGE gets its way, those limited and incurious thinkers will discover that their beliefs are bullshit. Washington and its environs are home to 20% of civilian federal employees — which means that 80% of federal employees work in the rest of the US. And it turns out that those 80% are more likely to work in a red state than a blue one.
The AP published a map showing the percentage of employees in every congressional district who work for the federal government (see below). The darker the shading, the more people work for the feds — and the more reliant the district is on federal payroll dollars. (For an interactive version, click HERE )
Beyond the DC area, New Mexico and the Seattle area are blue districts with many federal workers. However, the rest of the high federal employment zones are mainly Republican — notably, the Mountain States, the Dakotas, Oklahoma, West Texas, the Deep South, and the Carolinas.
The pattern repeats in miniature in blue states. In Democratic Virginia, outside the DC suburbs, federal employees are concentrated in Republican strongholds. California shows the same red district pattern. How will those MAGA Representatives explain to the newly jobless that voting Republican is the best choice for their financial security?
Adding to the pain of the job losers is the relative generosity of unemployment benefits. Blue states pay more than red states in job loss compensation.
Dependent red state governments
It will probably confound MAGAs that they also live in states whose state and local governments are the most reliant on federal dollars. Consider this map of the moocher state governments.
I'll grant you that the New England and New Mexico governments have a taste for DC dollars. But I'm looking at you, Texas. You love to whine about California. But the surfers don't get anywhere near the rate of federal to state government benefits the self-congratulatory, 'independent' cowboys do. Look also at the industrial states that swung to Trump. All of them are high on the federal supply.
Florida looks good on this one metric. But the Deep South, Upper Mountain States, and Kentucky are solidly in the dependency column.
The cynic will say that DOGE will target blue states and protect red states. However, Musk has not shown the ability to be surgical. He has favored the blunderbuss approach. And Trump loves nothing better than to stick it to the people nominally on his side.
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