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He has no cards [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2025-02-28
Unless you have been living under a rock, you have seen videos of Trump & Vance trying to tag team Zelensky. For me, the memorable moment was when Trump declared “you have no cards”.
Always a card game with these guys. But let us play along.
Let us start with a tangent. The economy ! This link should take you to the St Louis Fed site, with an update on Personal Consumption Expenditures in the USA. Notice the dip in the last quarter. That's a telltale sign that something might be going off the rails. Now, normally, you would ignore such tell tale signs; but there is a now very large sign that now says… “THERE IS A CRAZY PERSON IN THE WHITE HOUSE WHO TWEETS IN ALL CAPS, AND IMPOSES TARIFFS ON EVERYONE. IGNORE TELL TALE SIGNS AT YOUR OWN PERIL”.
Let us move on to a second card. Recently, our esteemed POTUS declared that he would declare war on the BRICS grouping if they made moves towards a BRICS Clear currency, as that would be tantamount to de-dollarization. He threatened huge tariffs if they even so much as made a move towards that BRICS Clear currency. Actually, he threatened tariffs unless they pinky-promised not to ever create such a currency. So, of course, the BRICS nations are now making moves towards such a currency.
Let us move on to a 3rd card. Forcible expulsion of illegal immigrants. Keep an eye out for the numbers from February 2025 (they have not been released yet). However, in January, only 37000 were deported; this is significantly less than the 55000/month average deported in 2024 (under Biden). Deporting illegal immigrants (as he calls them) was of his main campaign promises. How is he going to fare when he can't even keep that promise ? It is sorta hard to round up migrants with government workers when you simultaneously try to fire them almost at random.
He has played those cards, and has lost (or is going to lose) the hand on all 3.
Now let us discuss the situation in Ukraine. As one Trump admin tweeter put it today: “What do you think America first meant ? Position papers, thoughts and prayers ?”. The tweeter was implying that humiliating Zelenskyy is exactly what America first means.
Let us think about this for a second.
What do you think “America first” means? Not to you, but to those who voted for Trump. There are two ways to think of “America first”
First, American needs should be put before the needs of Ukraine (and that of Israel, Egypt etc)
Second, America should be the pre-eminent nation in the world. The numero-uno. Not El Segundo. Not one among equals, but the pre-eminent one in a world that looks up to us. And in exchange for this pre-eminence, there is a price that we should be willing to pay.
The two definitions have adherents within the Trump supporting crowd. To be fair, there are quite a few Democrats who also hold those views as well, but almost every Trump supporter holds onto some combination of the two America first beliefs.
How do you think those America first adherents in the 2nd column will react when America kisses away its pre-eminence.
Because that is almost a guaranteed outcome.
They tried to bully Zelensky, who (at this time) is a wartime commander of people who have been at war for 3 years. It was a silly move… anyone with even a passing interest in history should have known that wartime commanders tend to develop really thick skins, and don't get bullied so easily. He should have tried to bully Zelensky before Zelenskyy became an experienced wartime commander.
So let us play out one scenario.
Zelensky turns to both Europe AND China for support. The Europeans give him some support... enough to keep Ukraine afloat for a few months. The Chinese let it play out for a while (because why would they not… this must be quite amusing to them), and then… they come to Ukraine’s aid in some fashion (perhaps by restricting Russia to smaller advantages than what Trump would concede). It is not impossible that Zelensky emerges from all this victorious, both personally, and as a leader of a nation that has prevailed. Americans probably don't understand this because American media doesn't cover it much; but weaker nations have stood up to American Presidents and won. In a conflict between two nations, it is not a given that the stronger nation always prevails.
But let us play out another scenario. This one is more likely.
Zelensky doesn't get any support from Europe/China. Ukraine collapses. Europe sues for peace, and offers significant concessions. Why would they not? Would they believe any American assurances? Russia is now a formidable adversary in a truly multi-polar world. Do you remember how Biden’s numbers tanked after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Do you recall the “who lost China” slogan. How do you think the America First crowd would react.
He has no cards.
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