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The US/Ukraine Bilateral Agreement (the mineral deal) is worthless! Which makes it brilliant. [1]

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Date: 2025-02-26

I’ve never been so excited to see so little out of an agreement. The Kyiv Independent has the full text here and this is one of those times it’s really important to see what it actually says versus what is reported about it. It’s not that long so I encourage you to go read it. But when you’re back, let’s get into it starting with the money quote:

The Government of Ukraine will contribute to the Fund 50 percent of all revenues earned from the future monetization of all relevant Ukrainian Government-owned natural resource assets (whether owned directly or indirectly by the Ukrainian Government), defined as deposits of minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas, and other extractable materials, and other infrastructure relevant to natural resource assets (such as liquified natural gas terminals and port infrastructure) as agreed by both Participants, as may be further described in the Fund Agreement. For the avoidance of doubt, such future sources of revenues do not include the current sources of revenues which are already part of the general budget revenues of Ukraine. Timeline, scope and sustainability of contributions will be further defined in the Fund Agreement.

Did you focus on the “50 percent of all revenues” or did you catch the important part?

as agreed by both Participants, as may be further described in the Fund Agreement .

Oh, what is this “Fund Agreement”?

The text of the Fund Agreement will be developed without delay by working groups chaired by authorized representatives of the Government of Ukraine and the Government of the United States of America.

This isn’t a deal. This is a deal to make a deal. And this deal to make that deal has absolutely no measurables attached to it. No timelines, numbers, or anything approaching something to hold either party accountable if the “Fund Agreement” never gets completed.

Okay, so go reread it and let me know if you agree with me. In the meantime I’m going to go forward on the assumption this deal is meaningless. Why then do I feel it makes the deal brilliant?

The absolute last thing that Ukraine wants to do is drive Trump (not the US, Trump) ever further towards Russia. But let’s not kids ourselves here, Trump has no greater love in the world than that which he feels towards Putin. If Ukraine can delay that inevitable drift of Trump to Putin and more specifically delay any concrete actions by the Government of the United States towards Russia, that is well worth the time spent on this giant nothing burger of an agreement.

Ukraine and the US have been seen to make a deal together. Both sides can point to this deal and say “Hey, we made a deal!” Trump get’s to pretend he did something. Zelensky gets precious time for Russia to collapse while hopefully keeping at least some US benefits going. If the deal wasn’t made, Trump could get all huffy, make a deal with Russia, and blame Ukraine for not making a deal first. But since Trump has “made a deal with Ukraine” he will hopefully tone down his man-crush on Putin for a bit and continue to both let previously agreed upon arms go to Ukraine while letting Ukraine (with European help if needed) buy the more essential US goods. Any time Trump drifts towards Russia, Ukraine can privately or publicly point to this deal and ask “Hey, didn’t we have a deal?” How much of an effect this will have on Trump, who knows.

But this gives Ukraine a very large carrot to dangle in front of Trumps eyes and it’s perfect to keep bringing Trump back to the table. Mind you, I hope that Ukraine never actually finishes creating the “Fund Agreement” as it’s far more important to keep hold of the carrot. They may eventually be forced into finishing it by different pressures, but they have more leverage without an agreement than they do with an agreement. Once an agreement is made, Trump can go about ignoring and doing whatever the hell he pleases while pressuring Ukraine to hold to their side. But so long as the “Fund Agreement” goes unfinished, Trump needs to at least pretend to care about keeping to his side of it.

In the meantime the smart diplomats of Europe will realize nothing has actually happened with this agreement and continue to prepare for European security without a friendly United States. Ukraine can continue to bleed Russia dry until Russia finally runs out of gas. And Trump can go to hell thinking he did something.

Follow me on Bluesky: peterolandt.bsky.social

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