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As Europe wakes to find it's strength, I am optimistic for Ukraine's future [1]

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Date: 2025-02-25

It’s been three years since Kyiv was supposed to fall in 3 days. And even as the United States slides towards authoritarianism I am optimistic for Ukraine. Ukraine has not just survived, but is building and winning. Yes, they are winning.

Russia has given everything it has and has not broken Ukraine. The Russians have nearly spent the massive cold war surplus left by the Soviet Union. Estimates are around a year left of the worst quality equipment in many categories. Meanwhile Ukraine has become the largest producers of drones in the world. They have held Russia to minimal gains while inflicting maximum Russian casualties. Russia’s economy is going through massive inflation, crippling worker shortages, and has nearly run out of its monetary reserve. Ukrainian drones are chipping away at Russia’s biggest export economy in fossil fuels.

Meanwhile, Europe is finally awakening to the danger of the Trump administration. They are making plans for defense without the United States. The Germans have elected a new Chancellor who is strongly pro-Ukraine. The UK is upping its defense spending and some in parliament are talking about a new version of NATO.

Much is still to be decided in this war. But now European leaders are changing the way in which they talk about helping Ukraine. They are talking seriously about a post-war outcome with a Western European presence in Ukraine. Without the US Western Europe is realizing that it is up to Europe (Ukraine plus allies) to defeat Putin and they can’t sit around waiting for the US to solve the problem. Eventually, if Russia doesn’t collapse first, they will finally reach the realization that they must commit combat troops to help Ukraine close out this war. They need to show Russia that they have the strength and willingness to fight, and that can only be done by fighting.

Furthermore, without the US in the picture, the relative balance between Ukraine and its allies has moved towards Ukraine. The allies are finally realizing just how much they need Ukraine and not just as a delaying measure, but as an equal. Sure, Ukraine’s allies have more money and higher quality weapons, but Ukraine has the largest army in free Europe, the largest tank army, the largest drone force and production, and far more conventional experience fighting than any other European country.

And yes, all of this is assuming there is no further help from the United States, including yanking Starlink and even ending US sanctions. The difference between now and October of 2023 is immense. The Ukrainians have been preparing for this, really ever since October of 2023. Their drone production is under their own control and is over a million units per year, with some estimates of reaching 4 million per year sometime in the next year or two. Each drone is roughly comparable to an artillery shell and with increasing drone range due to various means that difference decreases. Combine this with a Europe finding its backbone and Ukraine will still win. The US ending sanctions would help Russia but not by enough. The European sanctions would still hold significant weight. The only means the US could swing the war for Russia would be to start providing Russia with weapons and I’d like to think that would be too big of a bridge even for Republicans. At the very least it would greatly accelerate the anti-Trump movement in the United States. If Europe has entered the fighting at that point, it would make it even harder for Trump to do so. US business has far too much wealth in Europe to side with the Russian economy OVER the European economy. So it’s not that Trump wouldn’t want to do it, he would. It’s that the US Oligarchs have some limits they would impose upon him. Should Trump cross them, he might find the MSM no longer so ready to shovel his propaganda.

The new found determination of Ukraine’s allies plus Zelensky’s ever present leadership will also help the resistance to Trump in the United States. The unabashed defense of freedom and democracy (real freedom, not the piss the Republicans pass off as “freedom”) will serve as a bold example of what leaders of democracy should be like. I can’t help but think that if Chuck Schumer had been the leader of Ukraine three years ago he would have taken the ride instead of the ammunition. And if he had somehow gotten this far, most US democrats would have taken the $500 Billion shakedown Trump is offering instead of standing up for his country like Zelensky has.

I regularly listen to “Ukraine the Latest” from the Telegraph and while they frequently do a good job, they have been subtly pushing the framework of should Trump make a deal with Russia then Ukraine will somehow be forced to go along with it. Nothing could be further from the truth. Ukraine already found out the hard way they cannot count on the US, and that was with Biden as President. Zelensky knows that Trump is a bully and a conman. Trump is not transactional. He’s a criminal and an extortionist. The way to operate with Trump is to tell him no, and then oppose him anyway you can.

Ukraine is going to win this war. And the European allies and Ukraine can then boldly talk about real freedom and real democracy to help the United States defeat Authoritarianism here. Seeing strong leaders stand up to Trump is incredibly refreshing, as I’ve seen far too little of it here; at least from many elected Democrats. If we want to defeat Trump, we can take lessons from Ukraine.

Follow me on Bluesky: @peterolandt.bsky.social

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