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America in the Spheres of Influence [1]

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Date: 2025-02-22

United States-Russian diplomacy is set to commence this week in Saudi Arabia despite the disapproval of European officials.

A top adviser to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the talks are “dangerous” because they exclude Kyiv’s government, as stated by writer Jonathan Tyrone in his story “US-Russia Diplomacy Seen as ‘Dangerous’ by Ukraine.” Reports noted that the White House didn’t inform Zelenskiy about the negotiations before announcing the meeting. Ukraine asked Europe to appoint a representative for talks. Some European Union leaders grew distraught over French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to exclude 20 of the bloc’s 27 members from this week’s defense-spending summit.

The talks in the French capital come as European officials are worried that President Donald Trump is racing ahead with efforts to end the war in Ukraine and reduce US military commitments. Washington is already talking to European leaders to gauge their willingness to field peacekeepers. While military officials don’t expect Trump to quit its European alliance altogether, there’s a dawning realization that the EU must shoulder a higher security burden.

With all that’s been in the headlines regarding international relations, it’s hard to predict where the world will be in five years or the prospects for lasting peace. The US is driving a wedge between itself and its European allies through the above-mentioned Ukraine settlement and Vice-President JD Vance’s speech on internal European politics at a time when lawbreaking Russia threatens the continent. President Donald Trump’s recent untrue comment that Ukraine started the war with Russia is another sign that we are seeking less influence in Europe.

Some say the US is switching sides and moving into the authoritarian orbit, the China/Russia orbit. However, I’m unconvinced that’s what we’re doing. If we were to enter that orbit, the US would drop the tariffs on China. Instead, Trump is increasing them. However, he has promised sanctions relief for Russia in exchange for peace and a reentry into the G7. I think we’re moving into a world defined by spheres of influence.

What is a world defined by spheres of influence? In international relations, spheres of influence is where various powers dominate a particular region of the world. If the US abandons Europe, Russia will most likely be the dominant power in the region, and the main conflict will be between Russia and Europe. China will be the dominant power in Asia, and the US will dominate the Western Hemisphere. What’s wrong with that? Does it lighten our commitments and give us less military spending? No, spheres of influence means that each dominant power will balance each other with more and more military spending - bad news for those who want a world dominated by international law and peace.

Trump represents a school of foreign policy that combines transnationalism, isolationism, lack of respect for those in the democratic orbit, and blowhard remarks that set off reactions around the world (Trump’s remarks on Panama, Greenland, and Canada). Therefore, it’s not a form of foreign policy that promotes the rule of law for the nation-states and city-states of the world.

What can we expect? A spheres of influence strategy where each power balances one another with high military budgets and a world where authoritarian states have room to maneuver around the world. What’s the alternative? A concert of power strategy where the world’s main powers police the world in the name of international law - tough in a world where the world's three leading powers are consumed by Trumpian foreign policy (US), invasions of sovereign states (Russia), and the determination to dominate the South China Sea and a possible invasion of Taiwan (China).

We only hope positive international norms win in Europe, the US, China, and Russia. Maintaining democratic norms in the US and Europe and spreading those norms to Russia and China will be an added plus. How will the story end? I guess history will tell us as it is written in the next decade or so.

Jason Sibert is the Lead Writer of the Peace Economy Project

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