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"It's the economy, stupid" - Trump hemorrhages support on his #1 strength [1]

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Date: 2025-02-20

The suspension of logic in American politics

Some Americans vote for the party that is less likely to give them what they say they want. In the 2024 election, a poster child for this disconnect between desire and reality was the choice by many pro-Palestinian Americans to vote for Trump.

They were so unhappy with 'Genocide Joe' that they voted for a man in love with Bibi Netanyahu — the architect of the Palestinian genocide.

Now, when they look at Trump's plan to expel all 2.2 million Palestinians from the Gaza Strip so oligarchs can build luxury Mediterranean resorts on their ancestral land, do these protest voters feel a moment of regret? I don't know why they thought Don was better than Joe. It wasn't as if Trump hid his unconditional backing of conservative Israeli imperialism. A policy promulgated by the MIGAs (Make Israel Great Again).

Author's note: I do not equate Netanyahu with Israel any more than I equate Trump with America. There are many liberal Israelis who want a negotiated two-state solution. However, even good people can have shit leaders. And some Israeli voters are as deluded as some Americans.)

This self-defeating behavior is not limited to foreign policy. Many Americans voted for Trump because they thought he would be better for the economy than Harris. It was a dumb decision. Not only is Trump crap at economics. His party has been disastrous for most Americans. Yet the myth persists that Republicans are better for the economy.

Why does anyone think Trump is a good businessman? It beggars belief. The MAGAs swear he's a fecking genius. Yet Trump himself had to admit in Trump Media & Technology Group's (TMTG) 2024 10-K filing with the SEC that:

"A number of companies that were associated with President Donald J. Trump have filed for bankruptcy. There can be no assurances that TMTG will not also become bankrupt." (For a complete list, see Appendix 1 at the bottom)

The 10-K filing adds:

"A number of companies that had license agreements with President Donald J. Trump have failed. There can be no assurances that TMTG will not also fail." (For a complete list, see Appendix 2 at the bottom)

Even some Trump supporters find out he's full of shit

It is no surprise to people in the reality-based world that Trump has no idea how to reduce prices and grow the economy. Now, after a month of chaos, some people who voted for the incompetent windbag are discovering they have made a dumb choice.

CNN's stat guy, Henry Enten, discussed four recent polls showing that Trump's approval is underwater. On Thursday morning, he said:

"These four polls, all of them tell a consistent story, and that is Trump is on the negative side of the ledger. His net approval is negative. He is underwater like The Little Mermaid."

Enten continued:

"We don't have a CNN poll to compare, but we do have the other three pollsters that we can look at. Trump's net approval rating, the change since January – look at this: Gallup down five points, Quinnipiac down seven points, Ipsos down 13 points. The bottom line is this: Across the four new polls that we have, all of them have Trump in net negative approval rating, and the three in which we have a trend line, we see Donald Trump heading in the wrong direction, swimming upstream."

I think "sinking like a rock" is a more accurate image. But the point remains. Trump is losing his luster. Some will argue that polls don't mean anything. Or that Trump will not face the voters again (either he'll try another coup or be forced to leave in 2028). However, his party will have to go to the polls in 2026. And nothing focuses politicians' minds more than the threat of losing their cushy jobs.

Republicans in safe seats won't speak up. Their actual electoral test is the GOP primary. However, Republicans in purple districts might decide to buck MAGA and chance a primary challenge to put themselves in a better position in the general election. Or not. Those guys are not profiles in courage.

Regardless, as Trump's approval goes down, the odds of the Democrats retaking the House in 2026 go up. More importantly, the further people move away from Trump, the harder it will be for him to execute his hostile takeover.

Hitler maintained the support of Germans because the Nazi peacetime economy was on a roll. He knew how to grow an economy—even if unsustainably. Hitler’s massive deficit spending on public works and the military led to annual average GDP growth of c.7.5% from 1933 to 1940, which complemented an annual inflation rate of c.1.0%.

Trump is doing the exact opposite. His policies will decrease GDP growth and increase prices. He is slashing federal expenditures and simultaneously adding inflationary tariffs. His threatened mass expulsion of farm and food processing workers will put pressure on grocery prices. That will not lead to grass-roots support for his dreams of monarchy.

Enten continued:

"One of Donald Trump's great strengths during his first term, one of Donald Trump's great strengths during the 2024 campaign, was the economy, the idea that Donald Trump could fix the economy. This was one of Donald Trump's great strengths; now it's one of his great weaknesses. What am I talking about? Trump's net approval rating. You go back to his first term, February 2017 – Ipsos, he was at plus-16 points on his net approval, Quinnipiac plus-six. Look at where he is now in Ipsos, he's eight points underwater on the economy. Quinnipiac four points under on the economy."

Enten finished:

"I honestly never thought I'd see the day in which Donald Trump would be polling so poor on the economy – but that day is here. As I said last week, inflation ate the Joe Biden presidency alive, and right now, it is very much the case that Donald Trump is in danger of inflation eating his presidency alive because his net approval ratings on the economy are underwater."

The moral of the story

You can tell children the dangers of climbing a tree. But nothing teaches them a lesson better than falling out of one. MAGAs are like that. You can tell them there will be pain. But until they feel it, they don't understand.

Appendix 1:

The 10-K report enumerates the Trump bankruptcies: Trump Taj Mahal, which was built and owned by President Donald J. Trump, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 1991.

Trump Plaza, the Trump Castle, and the Plaza Hotel, all owned by President Donald J. Trump at the time, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 1992

THCR, which was founded by President Donald J. Trump in 1995, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2004

Trump Entertainment Resorts, Inc., the new name given to Trump Hotels & Casino Resorts after its 2004 bankruptcy, declared bankruptcy in 2009.

Appendix 2:

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