(C) Daily Kos
This story was originally published by Daily Kos and is unaltered.
. . . . . . . . . .
White to move and mate in two #629 - Near Earth Asteroid 2024 YR4 [1]
['This Content Is Not Subject To Review Daily Kos Staff Prior To Publication.']
Date: 2025-02-18
Most of you are well aware of 2024 YR4, the recently discovered asteroid, which now has a revised 2.6% 3.1% chance of striking Earth on Dec 22, 2032. cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/...
The 40-90 meter approx. 0.22 billion kg asteroid is being closely monitored by ground-based telescopes. The asteroid will be visible through April, after which it will be too faint to observe until around June 2028, when it will safely swing by Earth (it has a period of 4.046 years).
NASA’s JWST will observe and make measurements of it in March 2025 to get a better estimate of its size and mass.
New observations of Asteroid 2024 YR4 have increased the probability of striking Earth on Dec 22, 2032 from 2.3% to 2.6% 3.1% and narrowed the range of closest distances to earth. This initial rise in probability is expected as observations narrow down the width of the strike “corridor” (the uncertainty region, see graphic below) while the collision probability is ~= the diameter of earth / corridor width. Given that Earth is currently off-center in that corridor, the probability will continue to rise until the time earth starts to drop out of that narrowing corridor causing the probability to drop to near zero.
However, the orbit can change as the asteroid travels out to near Jupiter, swings by earth in 2028, travels out again and does its final menacing approach to Earth in 2032. Even its weight is not precisely known at this point.
No word yet on when the decision for a possible deflection mission will be made. Although, OHB SE, a European space and technology group, posted a news release that they have started work on an asteroid deflection mission.
OHB experts have now also started working on a mission plan to redirect 2024 YR4. This is to ensure that the asteroid can be deflected in an emergency and includes looking into reusing previous designs of OHB missions to asteroids, such as Hera or Ramses.
Although further observation of the asteroid's trajectory will most likely reduce the probability of an impact to zero, it is important to start developing a defensive mission at an early stage. This is because the probability of impact might still increase, and the next – and best – launch opportunity for an impact probe is already in 2028. www.ohb.de/...
What effect would a strike by the 40-90 m asteroid 2024 YR4 have on Earth?
Objects smaller than 25m harmlessly burn up in the atmosphere.
The Tunguska event (Jun 30, 1908) was caused by a 50-60 m asteroid. The airburst at 6–10 km altitude flattened ~80 mil trees over a 2,150 sq km area. Asteroid 2024 YR4 would have a similar effect.
Every ~2K years, a football field sized object causes significant damage.
Every few 10s of millions of years, we get an object like the 10 km asteroid 65 million years ago that wiped out 3/4 of species and the dinosaurs.
433 Eros is a near-Earth asteroid approximately 34.4×11.2×11.2 km
We can keep an eye on blogs.nasa.gov/… and blogs.esa.int/…for further updates.
Let's not lose any sleep over it ... yet. There are plenty of more urgent threats to our world.
—
Now let’s solve today’s puzzle composed in 1921 by noted Argentinian chess composer Arnoldo Ellerman (1893 - 1969).
[END]
---
[1] Url:
https://dailykos.com/stories/2025/2/18/2304505/-White-to-move-and-mate-in-two-629-Near-Earth-Asteroid-2024-YR4?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=more_community&pm_medium=web
Published and (C) by Daily Kos
Content appears here under this condition or license: Site content may be used for any purpose without permission unless otherwise specified.
via Magical.Fish Gopher News Feeds:
gopher://magical.fish/1/feeds/news/dailykos/
