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The Great Game may be back, but does the team that brought it back got game? [1]
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Date: 2025-02-16
Every where you turn, you hear that Felonious is giving Poots in Poots and his master, Xi, what they want, an end to the rules based order. I think that is pretty accurate.
Felonious' team wants the return of the Great Game, global imperial competition where the big boys make the rules. I think his base want it too. They imagine the US has the power to win.
I think they are deluding themselves. They all presuppose that the current alignment, i.e., the West versus the rest puts the US at an advantage, and there's the problem.
Why would the EU or Europe stick by the US? Clearly the shared values argument is out the windows, what with Elon steadily trying to supplant liberal democratic governance with raw oligarchy. Besides, a rule of thumb in the great game is don't ally too closely with an empire more powerful than you lest you become the vassal. If you must, pick one closer to parity and farther away.
For Europe, the closest imperial threat is Russia. The US seems not to care, which makes the US not all that useful as an ally while at the same time it remains the next closest imperial threat.
The thing for Europe to do under these circumstances is to secure itself against US military and economic leverage. Militarily, it will need to onshore its materiel production capacity, increase its nuclear arsenal, and expand its navy. Economically, it will have to reinvest in nuclear power, and find trading partners with key resources and large potential markets.
Fortunately for them, there are potential trading partners that fit those bills. They also do not pose the imperial threat that the US does.
Ukraine has the resources, i.e., oil, rare Earth elements, uranium, etc, and has made Europe the same offer it has made to the US. Going all in to help Ukraine would also cripple Russia. That's three birds with one stone.
Then there is Canada. It turns out a country does not have to be a European Country to become a member of the EU. Canada has lots of oil, untapped rare earth elements, and lots and lots of fresh water. Canada most certainly would like to have a counter-balance to the hegemon to its South, and be part of a trading block that cannot be rendered meaningless by one crack pot in power. That's another two bird stone.
And finally, there's China. Now there's an excellent trading partner given its potential consumer market that it must open up if it is to survive. It is also connected by land allowing for substantial trade while Europe is rebuilding its navy.
China is the perfect Frenemy With Benefits as well. It will strip Russia of its empire in Central Asia, and perhaps take back Siberia, eliminating Russia as a serious threat on Europe's border. It will force the US to devote a substantial portion of its military assets to the pacific. The best part is it's too far away to pose a direct military threat.
That's a lot of birds with one stone.
It's not all bad news for the US though. It will likely find willing allies in Japan, Korea, Australia, Vietnam, India, Singapore, etc. It all depends on one thing...
Does the team the US has got got game?
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