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BOYCOTT! [1]
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Date: 2025-02-16
Since Trump’s dismantling of the Constitution and the rule of law, there has been considerable discussion here and elsewhere on what we, the common citizens, can do to fight back. There have been the usual suggestions—write your congress critter, take to the streets, vote, etc.—and the bizarre ones—arm yourself, stock provisions, and prepare for Armageddon. Another idea that has arisen is the idea of boycotts. As Malcolm Cowley observed in the 1970s, modern capitalism is a capitalism of consumption. As such, it is as vulnerable at the mode of consumption as it is at the mode of production.
Boycotts can be general—don’t buy anything—or specific, boycott X. In the latter case, it can be a consumer boycott—Boycott Grapes--or a campaign aimed at advertisers—Flush Rush. The general boycott is akin to the general strike and, in fact, the recent calls for action have combined the two. I am not averse to not spending, but for me it’s more of a lifestyle thing than a protest. General boycotts, though, have two problems. One, it’s hard to calculate success and, two, the impacts often fall on the consumers more than the producers. General boycotts, as well as general strikes, should only be called when there is a true mass mobilization. We are not at Maidan, yet, but we will know when we get there.
Boycotts have a checkered history, there can be no doubt about that. Most have failed. They typically fail because it is difficult to sustain consumer interest over a long period of time, especially if the boycotted thing is a staple. The UFWU grape boycott was a success, the follow-up lettuce boycott was a failure. Successful boycotts require a lot of messaging and a lot of effort. It also helps when the target is a recognizable villain. This brings in the anger factor. What most US boycotts have lacked is anger. Instead, they were about doing the right thing and often for someone other than the boycotter. Now, we boycott to save democracy and ourselves, and we boycott out of righteous anger. Anger generates a desire for retribution. There is no lack of anger now and the anger will only intensify. If the anger cannot be satisfied in the voting booth, it will be satisfied elsewhere. Boycotts can be a non-violent expression of anger. There is no lack of boycott targets, but our anger needs to be focused on one or two. I will suggest two, both of which are already happening, and both are international in scope.
Boycott Tesla. This is an obvious one and there is already a spontaneous boycott movement. That spontaneous movement is also showing signs of becoming an organized revolt. Yesterday there were nationwide demonstrations against Tesla. #Teslatakedown. The boycott has been most notable in Europe where sales are plummeting. Sales were already in decline, now they are in freefall and the freefall occurred exactly at the moment that Musk went full Nazi. Sales are also in decline in the US which is odd given that sales of EVs worldwide are rising. Musk now has stiff competition, and a boycott is the last thing he needs.
Who buys Teslas? I live in a university town with a large medical complex, and I see lots of Teslas. I also know people who own Teslas and they are not a happy lot. Educated middle class white people bought Teslas. MAGAs did not buy Teslas nor are they likely to. There is no market in working-class communities for Teslas as they are too expensive. 17% of Tesla’s sales have been in California. Even in red states, the sales are clustered in blue areas. That’s not good for Tesla.
Some have argued that a boycott won’t be effective because Musk’s stock in Tesla isn’t that high. That’s simply not true unless you think 30% of his wealth is insignificant. (It used to be 76%.) Regardless, Musk isn’t the prime target; it’s his investors. Tesla stock is considered grossly overvalued. If sales plummet 20% in the next six months, there will be a massive selloff, and Musk will be left holding the empty bag. There could also be an investor revolt with Musk losing control of the company. Would that dampen enthusiasm for the boycott? Maybe, but I think the brand, itself, will become too toxic to matter. Musk is not only killing current sales, but also future sales. It’s entirely possible that Tesla becomes untenable as a brand and is forced to sell to a competitor who will, in turn, rebrand as something else. Wouldn’t that be ironic.
Boycott Florida. This one started in Canada. If you haven’t noticed, Canadians are royally pissed, and they are taking it out on all things USA including vacations in Florida. Trudeau has called for Canadians to take a staycation this year. Will the Brits, who also love Florida, follow the Canadians? Florida is also popular with Colombians. Oh yea, we just pissed them off too. Florida stands out as it is ground zero for Project 2025 and is Trump’s home state. Musk has a strong presence in Florida. Like Tesla, Florida is also vulnerable. It is difficult to estimate tourism’s impact on Florida’s economy because things in Florida can be complicated and intertwined. But here is the AI overview when I put the question to Google:
In 2023, tourism contributed $127.7 billion to Florida's economy, which was a 5% increase from 2022. This supported 2.1 million jobs and generated $36.9 billion in taxes. 8.5% of visitors to Florida were from overseas and Canada.
Economic impact
Tourism accounted for 9.5% of jobs in Florida.
For every dollar spent by a visitor, Florida retained 97 cents.
Tourism supported around one in every seven private sector jobs.
Tourism activity resulted in $1,910 in tax savings per household in Florida.
Tourism growth
Tourism is projected to increase steadily through 2028.
Florida's economy is set to return to pre-pandemic growth rates over the next five years.
Tourism jobs
The hospitality and tourism industry continues to be the top employer in the region.
The average salary for hotel and lodging jobs are even higher at $46K in Central Florida, which is also higher than the national average of $45K.
This probably understates the impact as it is difficult to gauge tourism’s impact on construction and construction is Florida’s second biggest industry. Nor do the AI figures include foreign and domestic real estate investments which are huge in Florida. You can also see the potential ripple effects of a tourism downturn in terms of tax revenues. Taxes are low in Florida because tourists pay a lot of the taxes. Florida’s tourism industry and real estate market are already being threatened by climate change. Add a boycott to that and the hurt will be intense. It's time to make the Florida boycott domestic as well as international.
A Florida boycott also has the potential of creating rifts in the ruling class. Disney was one of the last to bend the knee to Trump and I don’t think Bob Iger was happy about it. What would happen to Disney if it experienced a 10% or 20% decrease in gate at Disney World? Universal, part of the NBC/Comcast empire, is about to open a new theme park in Orlando. Disney is also heavily invested in Caribbean cruises that depart from Florida. None of the cruise lines could take a 20% reduction in occupancy for very long. Will Disney and NBC continue to bend the knee if their profits are threatened? Will the hotel chains sit quietly as their rooms remain unoccupied? What about the impact on real estate? Did you know that 30% of the residents at The Villages are snowbirds? Canadians and Brits have bought heavily in southwest Florida, predominantly in Republican areas like Sarasota, Naples, and Ft. Myers. Realtors tend to be Republican. Will they remain Republican when there’s a housing glut in southwest Florida? What will the impact be on residential and commercial construction? What about homeowners who suddenly find themselves underwater again as real estate values plummet? Barack Obama won Florida in 2008 in large part because the 2008 economic collapse had a dramatic impact on Florida.
What is the goal? The goal is to turn Florida blue. For that reason, the Democratic Party cannot be part of the boycott. In fact, it would have to oppose it. Its stance would instead be, “Look what the GOP has inflicted on the state. People no longer want to come here. Vote Democratic and we can change that.” The boycott would have to be organized outside the party.
It wouldn’t be necessary to achieve even a 20% reduction in tourism. If we can get just 10% of domestic tourists to boycott Florida and 50% of foreign tourists that would bring us to about 14%. A 14% reduction would probably suffice to achieve our goal. At 14%, investors will panic and look elsewhere. At 14%, there will be a serious tax revenue loss. Florida is already in a serious demographic situation. Out migration is among the highest in the nation and there is a serious birth replacement deficit. Florida is kept alive and Republican by the constant influx of affluent white Boomers. The nation is running out of Boomers and Gen X is much smaller and less affluent. The national ratio of workers to retirees is 4:1. In Florida, it’s 3:1 and projected to be 2:1 by 2030. That’s not sustainable.* Add a boycott to the mix and Florida is in very serious economic trouble. Throw in a cat 5 hurricane and it will be lights out for Florida and the GOP.
We have power! Let’s use it!
*Florida is heavily dependent on immigrant labor in construction, agriculture, and hotels. Yet, ICE has been relatively quiet in Florida. Within the state, the Florida legislature took immigration enforcement out of the hands of DeSantis and put it in the Dept. of Agriculture where it is likely to be ignored. These people are such hypocrites it’s unbelievable.
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