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Updated: After the California wildfires, the floods. Bad time to cripple FEMA and NOAA, Musk/Trump [1]
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Date: 2025-02-13
From the LA Times back on February 8, 2025
Major atmospheric river storm is barreling toward California: 'Prepare for the worst'
A major atmospheric river storm — strong enough to potentially rival some of the extreme storms that have walloped Southern California in recent winters — is barreling toward the coast, raising the specter of damaging landslides and flooding across the region. This storm, forecast to reach Southern California sometime before Valentine's Day, is expected to be the strongest of the winter so far, according to the National Weather Service office in Oxnard. It threatens to drop large amounts of rain — 2 to 4 inches or more along the coast and in valleys, 4 to 8 inches or more in the mountains and foothills — across a swath of the Southland. There's a 60% chance of rainfall of that magnitude in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties, and a 30% chance in Los Angeles and Ventura counties. There's also a chance rainfall could be extreme, along the lines of the powerful storm of Jan. 9, 2023, which forced the mass evacuation of Montecito and other communities, caused significant flooding, and resulted in the deaths of two motorists — including a 5-year-old boy — who were caught in floodwaters in San Luis Obispo County.
It’s Here
If you do a Google search on “atmospheric river” you will get the latest.
NPR: An atmospheric river is coming to California. It could bring risks of debris flows
LA Times: Brunt of atmospheric river storm hits L.A. today: Timing, trouble spots, evacuations and more
USA TODAY: Schools closed, evacuations issued as Southern California braces for storm: Updates
SF GATE: Creeks hit flood stage as atmospheric river slams Bay Area
It’s not just about California either.
KSL.COM Winter storm warnings issued across Utah ahead of incoming atmospheric river
That much rain would not be good at the best of times, but the areas of California that burned in the recent wildfires are going to be subject to landslides because the ground cover that would hold the soil in place has been burned off. From the NPR link above:
..Researchers and emergency managers are also particularly worried about severe rain falling on areas that recently burned, like in parts of Los Angeles. High-intensity fire can make soils less able to absorb water, and many of the places that burned in Southern California's January fires have been denuded of vegetation and structures that help hold steep hills in place. A serious blast of rain, says Swain, could destabilize slopes — and potentially trigger debris flows or mudslides. After the 2017-2018 Thomas Fire near Santa Barbara, an atmospheric river hit newly burned slopes. The total amount of rain was large, but not unprecedented — but some short bursts of rain dropped more than 3/4 inches in just 15 minutes. The intense rain triggered massive debris flows that killed more than 20 people. Emergency managers and the National Weather Service are warning of the risks of debris flows during this atmospheric river. They are asking people to pay close attention to emergency alerts and evacuations.
Atmospheric rivers form far out over the Pacific. They can carry enough water comparable to having several Mississippi Rivers unload from above. Sometimes called the Pineapple Express, 42 days of rain flooded the Central Valley of California around the New Year in 1861-62. Geological evidence shows this happens repeatedly, at intervals of roughly a century or more.
The U.S. Geological Survey, assuming Musk/Trump haven’t shut it down yet, has been developing a model of what could happen: ARkStorm. The summary of potential damage from a a storm is staggering; here’s just 3:
Megastorms are California's other Big One . A severe California winter storm could realistically flood thousands of square miles of urban and agricultural land, result in thousands of landslides, disrupt lifelines throughout the state for days or weeks, and cost on the order of $ 725 billion. This figure is more than three times that estimated for the ShakeOut scenario earthquake, that has roughly the same annual occurrence probability as an ARkStorm-like event. The $ 725 billion figure comprises approximately $ 400 billion in property damage and $ 325 billion in business-interruption losses. An event like the ARkStorm could require the evacuation of 1,500,000 people. Because the flood depths in some areas could realistically be on the order of 10-20 ft, without effective evacuation there could be substantial loss of life. An ARkStorm would be a statewide disaster . Extensive flooding is deemed realistic in the California Central Valley, San Francisco Bayshore, San Diego, Los Angeles and Orange Counties, several coastal communities, and various riverine communities around the state. Both because of its large geographic size and the state's economic interdependencies, an ARkStorm would affect all California counties and all economic sectors. An ARkStorm could produce an economic catastrophe . 25% of buildings in the state could experience some degree of flooding in a single severe storm. Only perhaps 12% of California property is insured, so millions of building owners may have limited or no ability to pay for repairs. That degree of damage would threaten California with a long-term reduction in economic activity, and raise insurance rates statewide - perhaps nationwide or more - afterwards.
There’s 4 more items at the USGS link.
A 2011 video discusses what the predictable damage would be from an ARkStorm that lasts for a month or more. If anything, the video has an overly optimistic ending because it proposes government and public preparation to cope with such a storm — and ARkStorms are a question of when, not if. That was before Republicans won Reagan’s war on government this year.
This video from last year shows what happened when an Atmospheric River hit California. Don’t let the “1,000 year storm” label put you at ease; as noted above the Big Ones can hit more frequently than that.
Climate change is making this worse of course, from the increase in wild fires on a hotter, drier planet, to bigger storms as warming oceans put more moisture in the air. It’s likely the U.S. Geological Society is purging all mentions of climate change from its websites, or will be soon as the official position of the Trump/Musk administration is that climate change is a hoax.
The actions by the Administration to restrict government agencies from international cooperation also come into play here. NOAA is being directed to cease any international contacts.
..At other branches of NOAA, international contact is facing heavy scrutiny, staff members said, raising questions about how easily they could carry out everyday efforts to monitor weather and atmospheric conditions — such as working with other countries to track tsunami risks across the Pacific Ocean, key to ensuring safety along the West Coast. NOAA produces government weather forecasts, conducts long-term climate monitoring and research, and manages the nation’s fisheries and marine mammals."
Hurricane hunters of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron this time of year fly missions off the West Coast to track incoming Atmospheric Rivers, along with other aircraft operated by NOAA. They are already flying missions this year.
KEESLER AIR FORCE BASE, Miss. -- In the ever-changing landscape of weather forecasting, some things remain the same—the Air Force Reserve’s 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron is busy; but rather than flying into tropical weather they are now collecting critical data from atmospheric rivers over the Pacific Ocean in support of the National Winter Season Operations Plan. During the winter months, the 53rd WRS, commonly known as the “Hurricane Hunters,” shifts their focus to these narrow corridors of concentrated moisture that can bring intense rainfall and cause significant flooding in the western United States. Crews, with the assistance of maintenance and support personnel, have flown 10 missions from Mather Airfield, Calif., four missions from Yokota Air Base, Japan, and one from their home station at Keesler Air Force Base, Miss., to gather vital, real-time atmospheric data to improve forecasts for atmospheric rivers impacting the western United States and significant winter weather events in the southeast. “This year is the first time we’ve operated out of Yokota,” said Lt. Col. Steven Burton, 403rd Operations Group deputy commander and 53rd WRS navigator. “We did this for logistical reasons. The base has a C-130J mission, and it is closer to the systems we need to fly.”
Those missions could be canceled if the squadron is no longer authorized to operate outside the United States for them. It should be noted during hurricane season, the WRS routinely operates out of airports around the Caribbean to be closer to incoming storms. Will those flights be jeopardized too? That will have a major impact on hurricane forecasting.
This is all part of a struggle over the role of the government and the people who stand to become wealthy privatizing the National Weather Service.
..WONG: Over the years, some policymakers have tried to limit the government's role in weather forecasting. This surfaced most recently in Project 2025, a policy blueprint from conservative think tank the Heritage Foundation. That document argues that some of NOAA's functions could be carried out commercially at lower cost and higher quality. MA: But moving to a more privatized or market-based model for weather forecasts, it raises questions about whether potentially lifesaving information would only be available to people with resources. WONG: For example, some municipalities supplement government forecasts with information from private companies that they pay for. But this begs the question, what about towns that can't afford to do that?
Meanwhile, the storm is happening
The Trump/Musk administration has thoughts and prayers (and probably more insults) for people on the West Coast as another weather event unfolds. Trump has already politicized disaster aid for California, and he and Musk are busy crippling the ability of the Federal government to respond. The Republican Party has fallen in line behind them.
This is not going to be pretty. People are going to lose everything in the event now unfolding. Some of them will die. This is not a good time to decapitate FEMA.
Trump bragged about sending in the Army to open a giant faucet to release water to put out the wildfires. Seems like it would only be fair to blame him for leaving the water running… He and Musk are in charge of everything now after all.
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[1] Url:
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