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Should Joe Biden Be The Last New Deal President? [1]

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Date: 2025-02-11

The accomplishments of President Biden were manifold, but here are (perhaps) the biggest 23:

Passed the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure package to increase investment in the national network of bridges and roads, airports, public transport and national broadband internet, as well as waterways and energy systems. Helped get more than 500 million life-saving COVID-19 vaccinations in the arms of Americans through the American Rescue Plan. Stopped a 30-year streak of federal inaction on gun violence by signing the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act that created enhanced background checks, closed the “boyfriend” loophole and provided funds for youth mental health. Made a $369 billion investment in climate change, the largest in American history, through the Inﬂation Reduction Act of 2022. Ended the longest war in American history by pulling the troops out of Afghanistan. Provided $10,000 to $20,000 in college debt relief to Americans with loans who make under $125,000 a year. Cut child poverty in half through the American Rescue Plan. Capped prescription drug prices at $2,000 per year for seniors on Medicare through the Inﬂation Reduction Act. Passed the COVID-19 relief deal that provided payments of up to $1,400 to many struggling U.S. citizens while supporting renters and increasing unemployment benefits. Achieved historically low unemployment rates after the pandemic caused them to skyrocket. Imposed a 15% minimum corporate tax on some of the largest corporations in the country, ensuring that they pay their fair share, as part of the historic Inﬂation Reduction Act. Recommitted America to the global ﬁght against climate change by rejoining the Paris Agreement. Strengthened the NATO alliance in support of Ukraine after the Russian invasion by endorsing the inclusion of world military powers Sweden and Finland. Authorized the assassination of the Al Qaeda terrorist Ayman al-Zawahiri, who became head of the organization after the death of Osama bin Laden. Gave Medicare the power to negotiate prescription drug prices through the Inﬂation Reduction Act while also reducing government health spending. Held Vladimir Putin accountable for his invasion of Ukraine by imposing stiff economic sanctions. Boosted the budget of the Internal Revenue Service by nearly $80 billion to reduce tax evasion and increase revenue. Created more jobs in one year (6.6 million) than any other president in U.S. history. Reduced healthcare premiums under the Affordable Care Act by $800 a year as part of the American Rescue Plan. Signed the PACT Act to address service members’ exposure to burn pits and other toxins. Signed the CHIPS and Science Act to strengthen American manufacturing and innovation. Reauthorized the Violence Against Women Act through 2027. Halted all federal executions after the previous administration reinstated them after a 17-year freeze.

Twenty-three still seems like too large a number for a summary, and it is. But Biden was just that accomplished, and I had to omit many accomplishments just to pare it down. Although not readily apparent, within this list was a particular focus on rural Americans, Red States, and working class voters, all of which are demographics that have been moving away from the Democrats for years. Considering that America was at (or as close to possible) full employment with a booming economy, these voters returned the favor by supporting Joe Biden, right? Right?

No.

Joe Biden was massively unpopular throughout his one term. In fact, he was so unpopular, Blue States like New York and New Jersey could have swung Republican if he had not decided to drop out of the race after a single term. Joe Biden left office with a 38% approval rating. Although it’s difficult to compare, this isn’t that much better than George W. Bush, who left office with a 34% approval rating. We can readily explain away Bush’s low approval. The Country was careening into the Great Recession and mired in a bloody War of Bush’s personal choosing. But Biden? Biden left office with the US not involved in a foreign conflict for the first time in decades, a booming economy, and not a single scandal. Biden’s low approval so aggressively defied rational explanation, I had at one time argued it must be incorrect. As we know from the results in November, it sadly wasn’t.

* * *

This philosophy is known as deliverism.

With every new Democratic Administration, we’re plagued with a surge of progressive arguments for needing the next FDR (also, here, here, here, ad infinitum... ).

Some of this is understandable. FDR not only transformed American Society for the better, he was the greatest President of the last Century. FDR also best exemplified the philosophy of deliverism through the New Deal, and was rewarded with astounding Democratic majorities. The New Deal still holds such sway, that 80 some odd years later, a green version of it was a cornerstone of Bernie Sander’s bid for the nomination. Sen. Sanders still has an entire page dedicated to a green new deal on his web site. Never mind that the coalition of voters that allowed the New Deal to happen hasn’t existed for 60 years.

I am not here to argue that there isn’t a moral imperative for deliverism.

President Barack Obama came into office amidst economic calamity and with large majorities in both Houses of Congress. The healthcare system was a travesty, and voters had been clamoring for reform for decades. The majority of voters had just said right before the election that the government needed to urgently address the situation as a top priority. We know (now) that Obamacare saves an estimated 45,000 lives a year, and it remains popular too! But how were the Democrats rewarded at the time for passing such important and popular legislation? Democrats suffered the largest midterm loss in generations. Even as Obamacare has become more popular, Democrats have never been rewarded electorally for passing it. We can (and will) argue the wither-tos and why-fors of this disconnect, but despite the moral imperative of Obamacare, it is not clear delivering healthcare reform for voters has been anything but a net negative electorally.

Just a short while ago, I would have argued that the moral imperative to deliver what was right outweighed any electoral calculus. Now? I’m not so sure,.

I’m also not here to argue that Republicans don’t engage in deliverism either.

Their chief form of deliverism is tax cuts for the wealthy. Although the wealthy constitute a tiny fraction of the population, decades of trickle down propaganda have led a large number of voters to believe that tax cuts for the wealthy will include them too. Donald Trump has added cruelty to that mix as well, and he is delivering cruelty as well. It may be why his approval has been rising since election day.

One could argue that Republicans also have not been rewarded electorally for passing tax cuts, as their electoral success in recent years is also decidedly mixed. Donald Trump was not rewarded for passing tax cuts in 2018 or 2020. But tax cuts for the wealthy have a second, hidden benefit: they build political power. Republicans are so desperate to cut taxes for the wealthy because increased wealth allows billionaires to buy more media, to contribute more to political campaigns, to launch more primary challenges against detractors, to own more television and cable news stations, and so on. Yes Republicans are misleading regular people, and doing it very effectively, but their real intent is to lock in power, not be more popular. It is the political power from tax cuts, not deliverism, that has allowed Republicans to overperform these past years.

* * *

What would a Democratic Administration not engaged in deliverism even look like? I have no idea, having lived my entire life with Democrats adhering to the philosophy of deliverism. One approach would be for Democrats to become more like Republicans, and stop attempting to deliver for hostile voters, even if it is morally imperative to do so.

Because somewhere there’s a transgender athlete competing.

What if Biden had spent his political capital more on Blue States and suburbs?

* * *

So why did deliverism work for FDR, but not for Biden, who clearly tried to emulate the FDR Presidency? One theory is that the people Democrats are now trying to reach at best aren’t paying attention, or worse, are completely misinfiormed.

I don’t agree it was always bunk, but the broader point that the current media environment precludes deliverism holds.

As a personal example, I recently needed to go to urgent care. In the past, I would have had to spend painful hours at the emergency room, but thankfully, I was seen within the hour at an urgent care facility. Who, reading this diary, knows that the increase in urgent care facilities is due to Obamacare? And we are among the educated people. People Obamacare tried to win over probably do not know this piece of information, and how Democrats materially made life better for people.

Personally, I feel deliverism faces two key obstacles in the modern time:

The media environment between passage of a law and when benefits materially reach people; and The time between passage and when benefits materially reach people.

Look at Obamacare as an example. There you had this incredibly long hang time between passage and implementation, where Republicans could tee off on fear mongering or web sites not working correctly, before people eventually accepted it. This is yet another reason Democrats must move away from establishment media as soon as possible, create, and fund their own media ecosystem. Look at the CNN article on urgent care I linked to, above. What photo did they choose to convey this real benefit of Obamacare? A hospital emergency room closing, even though the increase in urgent care centers has nothing to do with hospital closures, nor does anything in the CNN article mention emergency room closures!

The second, interrelated reason deliverism no longer works is because of the long hang time between passage of legislation and when benefits eventually do reach people. So much time passes, people often don’t connect the final benefit with the legislation, or if they do make the connection, that there is any benefit of all. Here is how Republicans labeling the Affordable Care Act as “Obamacare” was an own goal on their part, constantly reminding people Democrats passed the Affordable Care Act. So let’s look at another major Democratic initiative in a blue state, California High Speed Rail. Democrats want a National network of high speed rail, right? So why are we in our sixteenth year (!) of this project, and we don’t have an operable segment. Republicans are partly to blame. California High Speed rail was held up in courts for years by Republicans. It has also been underfunded and subject to withering right wing media attacks. But Democrats share plenty of blame, too. They currently have $4.3 billion towards the project they haven’t yet spent. And they haven’t yet spent this because the permitting and approval process, especially in blue states like California, is so lengthy and complicated. This is actually my area of professional expertise, and I hope to write more diaries on our broken infrastructure process in the future. Bernie Sanders wants a Green New Deal. But even if he passed one, you would never get it built due to all the permitting and approval headaches. And here is where Democrats, and our love of establishments, fails us. Democrats created the modern environmental permitting and regulatory environment, and now our ability to build projects to help the environment is completely strangled by it.

* * *

Joe Biden set out to be the next FDR. And in many ways, his accomplishments in one term are as impressive, as he was working with a much smaller coalition. I am sure that if someone had told Biden how his Presidency would have ended in four years later, he would still have passed every single piece of legislation, because he is a moral and upright human being.

I can’t conclude whether deliverism would work in a different media environment or in an environment that allowed faster implementation, But Democrats should strive for this environment regardless.

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