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It'll be a while before Dems control the Senate again [1]
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Date: 2025-02-04
In 2009, the Senate had a 60-seat Democratic majority. 36 states had at least 1 Democratic Senator. Both Senators from “deep-red” states like North Dakota, Arkansas, and West Virginia were Democrats.
Today, the situation has reversed. Democrats are in the minority in the Senate, and they are increasingly uncompetitive in states across the nation.
From 2002 to 2006, Democrats won at least one Senate seat in 32 states. From 2008 to 2012, this number ballooned to 36. From 2014 to 2018, that number shrank to 26, and from 2020 to 2024 that number has further shrunk to 25. Meanwhile, Republicans were able to pull off victories in at least 29 states from 2020 to 2024.
Democrats have a tough road ahead in regaining their majority. Right now, they control 47 seats. They can win in Maine in 2026; Wisconsin in 2028; and Pennsylvania in 2030.
That will bring them to 50—assuming that they hold onto all the seats they have in Michigan, Georgia, Nevada and Arizona. The next “easiest” state to flip would be North Carolina, where Democrats haven’t won a Senate election since 2008.
After North Carolina, the next easiest state seat to flip is in…Texas. Outside of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana, and Nebraska, Texas had the closest margin in the 2024 Senate elections; the Republican won by an 8.5% margin.
A 50-state strategy is necessary to remain competitive. Luckily, incoming Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin has committed to such a plan.
My advice to Democratic incumbents: don’t moderate out of fear of losing. Meet people where they are in your state, but don’t make it a goal to mirror the Republican running against you. Countless Democrats have pivoted right only to lose. Be authentic to who you are and look after your Democratic base.
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